The MICEX Tries to Hold Its Ground

Fundamentals

Data on the number of initial US jobless claims were released yesterday. The number was 234,000, which was 4,000 better than expected. The UK’s GDP was also announced. The number, 2%, was worse than expected.
Data on the Bank of Russia's currency reserves were published yesterday at 1:00 pm GMT. The reserves are at 405 billion. As we can see, the Bank of Russia’s reserves rose slightly; nevertheless, it is continuing a policy of accruing income from the rise in the cost of oil.
Speaking of oil. Unfortunately, at the time of this writing we have no information about the extension of the agreement among OPEC members, so we can only hypothesize about the results of the Vienna meeting.
The change in durable goods orders is expected today at 12:30 pm GMT. We are anticipating a rise of 0.5%.
You’ll recall that the meeting of the G-7 heads starts tomorrow. We advise that you take this into account in your trading.

Stocks

No corporate reports of interest are expected today.
Russia’s MICEX Index tried to hold its ground yesterday, after falling slightly at the opening. But technically the bulls are having a hard time. Note that on the weekly charts the price chart and MACDF are diverging, which indicates a possible imminent reversal and the index’s technical movement upward. All this is incorporated into the scenario from the standpoint of wave analysis, which we discussed yesterday. We therefore advise extreme caution in trading up and waiting for the movement to change direction after a technical correction.

Currency Market

As we mentioned in the May 19 review, the bears continue to retake their positions in the AUD/CAD pair. By all appearances, we have every chance of seeing the currencies at parity soon. On the weekly chart, the bears are receiving an additional signal in the form of the intersection of the 9-EMA and the middle Bollinger Band. In the mid-term, the aussie might pull back from the lower boundary of the price channel. We can therefore anticipate that traders will trade right down to the support, after which they might reverse positions.
The GBP/CHF pair continues to fall. On the daily charts, however, the price chart and MACDF are diverging, which might make the price reverse. On the weekly charts the pair is in a lateral trend with boundaries of 1.2100 - 1.2900. Consequently, we should look for confirming signals to open up positions.

Nikolay Dudchenko, Olymp Trade analyst

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