Same Soup, Just Reheated: Will Another Yellen Speech Shed Light on the Situation?

Fundamentals

The EU M3 aggregate was released Monday at 9 AM GMT. The indicator went down by 4.70%, short of expectations (4.90%). The euro, however, didn’t react to this news.
Today, the US consumer sentiment index is released at 2 PM GMT. The benchmark is expected to fall to 113.90. A bit later, at 4:50 PM GMT, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will be speaking again.
At 2:05 PM GMT, we recommend giving a listen to the remarks by Stephen S. Poloz, Governor of the Bank of Canada.

Stocks

Paychex, Inc. reports its earnings today, and we recommend monitoring this release. The US outsourcing company’s EPS is expected to drop slightly to $0.54.
Overall, the US stock market continued its decline at the market opening on Monday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average formed a gap right after trading opened. The support may now be at 19,800. In this context, a few interesting facts should be considered: (1) The MACD crossed the signal line top down on the weekly charts, which means that volume was fairly high; (2) The DMI lines reversed and started converging, giving a sell signal, although a weak one (this had already happened on the daily charts); (3) In terms of the wave theory, we can’t rule out the end of the 5th impulse wave; (4) Any conclusions regarding the mid-term trend reversal are premature.
Thus, the traders might still prefer shorts over longs for now. The bulls too will apparently prefer pruning their positions.
In Russia, PhosAgro will be reporting its earnings.
Alas, the MICEX Index’s breakout at 2,040 was a false one, and the inverted head and shoulders pattern is not yet confirmed. There’s still some hope for the bulls, however. Currently, the support is at 2,009, which is a 61.80% Fibo retracement. The bulls might still counter-attack, for example, to close yesterday’ gap. The MACD falling on the hourly charts signals a downtrend. However, the index may be in Elliott’s 2nd correction wave, which may signal an uptrend.

Currency Market

On the daily charts, the EUR/NZD pair is trading between 1.5170 and 1.5577. In the long term, the 9 EMA is being broken through bottom up, which gives the bulls an opportunity to continue attacking. In the short term, a double bottom is forming on the 4H charts, the resistance being 1.5430. If this level is broken through, 1.5650 may become a new target.
As for the EUR/JPY pair, an inverted flag formed on the 4H; however, the pair broke through the EMA bottom up, which is a buy signal. Graphically, an inverted head and shoulders pattern is forming on the daily charts, but there are no other signs of an uptick. Still, as likely as not, the bulls might try to build up their positions soon.

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