Labor Day – Investing sentiment maybe better

World shares recovered on last Friday after Facebook made profit 63% last week. SET also rose on Friday. SET may stay above 1,770 point on Monday but trade narrow because of easing volume. If SET rises above 1,785 points, it may retest resistance at 1,800 points again. If SET falls lower than 1,770 points, it may fall lower to 1,750 points. China and Japan have holiday on Monday but other Asian markets may swing narrow await Chinese manufacturing PMI at 08:00am. which might be positive, if it edges higher than 51.3. While U.S. dollar rose up last week because of the good economic data published and the rising bond yield - 3%, the greenback may hold steady because investor worries that Fed may rise interest rate. I suggest to focus on U.S. PCE at 07:30pm on Monday.
Many countries have a labor holiday on Tuesday, such as China, Singapore, Hong Kong, Thailand, Germany and Switzerland, therefore open stock market in Asia may trade lower or swing in the narrow frame because due to the decreasing volume. While investors keep focusing on U.S. economic data until next Fed meeting: ISM manufacturing PMI of April at 21:00 is forecast to be lower. If U.S. bond yield will not rise up and ISM manufacturing PMI release as forecasted, British pounds and Aussie dollar may rise up after strongly fell last week supporting by U.K. manufacturing PMI and RBA rate state. I believe the Australian dollar may have stronger bearish trend because of the RBA has kept the interest rate unchanged at 1.5% since August 2016. Canadian dollar may hold steady, if GDP in February at 07:30pm reaches the forecast at 0.1% and BoC chair, Poloz at 01.30am give a clearer signal of the coming monetary policy.
World stock markets may trade actively after holidays with rich economic indices on Wednesday. Kiwi dollar may fall to 0.700 dollar follow the strong bearish trend and lower forecast of employment change at 05:45am. However, euro may hold steady by getting positive support from German manufacturing PMI at 02:55pm, and GDP in European Union at 04:00pm may reach the forecast. Furthermore, U.K. construction PMI at 03:30pm also may support GBP to hold steady against USD which does not have strong support from ADP nonfarm payroll at 07:15pm, because investors may focus on real nonfarm on Friday. Giving the easing of political tensions between North and South Korea, Gold may fall to 1,300 USD. However, oil price may hold above 73 USD because of sanction’s worries with Iran.
Most cryptocurrency trading companies are moving to Malta - European island nation that is seeking to boost its fortunes by becoming one of the world’s friendliest jurisdictions for the sector, this causes concern among other regulators. Malta has just permitted “Crypto laws” that will have Malta Digital Innovation Authority working under the government. While Bitcoin price hold above 9,000USD last week, it may rise up to retest at 10,000 USD this week. I suggest support line at 8,600USD for Bitcoin.

By Niramon Nitnitiphruet
Financial analyst, Olymp Trade.

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