In focus politic in German – Trade war

European market opened lower on Monday from the worries of German political uncertainty after the interior minister has offered to resign because he thinks different with Chancellor Angela Merkel about migration. Furthermore, trade war between USA and partners, the recent time focus on China, may continue pressure world shares until any positive sign will appear. In my view, the attitude of both leaders: Trump and Xi Jinping last week seem difficult to compromise. As the result, major stock market in Asia may trade mixed on Tuesday and SET may continue swing in the frame 1,580-1,600 points.
Trade war never gives positive for any countries and this factor may cause the slowdown of world economy but U.S. dollar held steady by the obvious interest rate monetary policy. Aussie dollar fell lowest in one year at 0.7324 dollar last week and the decision of RBA to hold interest rate unchanged may pull Australian dollar down to the lowest point again. In contrast AUD/USD have a rise up gap at 0.7474 points so Aussie dollar may rise to close the gap. In my opinion, AUD/USD may need to break the resistant line at 0.7450 points before closing gap or this gap may take long time to close.
Gold price drop lower close to the lowest price in 2018 on Monday because of the firm dollar but the speculation and tension may support gold price hold above 1,245 and it may move flat around 1,245-1,255 dollar on Tuesday. While Ripple fell lowest in 2018 at 0.42467 dollar last Friday but it rose back above 0.450 dollar. In my view, the better level to trade Ripple is 0.50 dollar because the recent price may fall to the lowest price or do new low record of 2018.
Economic indices in focus:
• Australia: RBA interest rate decision and rate statement (Jul) at 11.30 a.m.
• UK: Construction PMI (Jun) at 15.30 p.m.
• USA: Durable Goods Orders at 21.00 p.m.

By Niramon Nitnitiphruet
Financial analyst, Olymp Trade.

Olymp Trade Review