GDP Reports to Be Released in the UK, Canada, and the US

Fundamentals

Donald Trump spoke yesterday on easing tax policy. Unfortunately, there are not many details on the President’s tax plan yet. Analysts predict an increase in the US budget deficit if the plan is adopted and the corporate income tax rate is cut to 15%. But, after all, they can always print more money. Seriously speaking, Trump's attempts to show off the results of his efforts are not impressive. We’ll see how things go.
Yesterday, two major central banks held meetings. Just as expected, interest rates in both Japan and the Eurozone remained unchanged.
In the United States, the initial jobless claims number was released on Thursday. The report was worse than expected. The data show that unemployment is rising in the United States, which makes the outlook not very favorable and gives Janet Yellen some additional food for thought. The next Fed FOMC meeting is scheduled for Wednesday, May 3. It appears that the Fed is going to hold off on tightening monetary policy tightening, at least until the next meeting.
The UK GDP, published at 8:30 AM GMT, is the highlight among the fundamentals released today. Both Canada and the United States release the same report at 12:30 PM GMT. The GDP in all three countries is expected to fall.
In Russia, the Russian Central Bank is meeting to decide on the key interest rate at 10:30 PM GMT. Governor Elvira Nabiullina has spoken about the CB’s plans for easing monetary easing before. This is why we believe the rate will be cut by 25 basis points.

Stocks

Ford Motor Company’s report exceeded expectations, with the EPS of $0.39 vs the forecast of $0.35.
As we mentioned yesterday, Ford shares reversed at $11.70, where the resistance was located. The bulls, however, still have some hope. On the daily charts, the 9-day EMA is at $11.40. We’ll be able to talk about a short-term trend reversal only if this EMA is broken through top down.
On Thursday, in expectation of Nabiullina's announcement, the local stock market kept on rising. The MICEX Index reached the upper boundary of the current bearish channel at 2,025 on the daily charts. The 2,025 Fibo retracement is at the same point. Thus, correction may well occur today, but only if there are no surprises from the Russian Central Bank, such as cutting the interest rate to 9.25%. If the Russian benchmark does go down, its support will be at 2,000; if it goes up, it will find resistance at 2.060.

Currency Market

On the daily charts, the AUD/JPY pair is forming a pattern that looks very much like inverted head and shoulders. The neckline, quite uneven, is at 83.70 yen. The bulls have every chance to break through this level, with the Aussie rising. Technically, the target may be at 85.50 yen per AUD. According to Elliott Wave Theory, the pair may have entered wave 2 (correction). It should also be noted there is an unclosed gap up on the daily charts, which broke through the 9-day EMA. If the gap is not closed, it may well be considered as a trend-changing gap.
The NZD/CAD pair has been falling heavily for the last few days. The support is at 0.9295, where the 78.6% Fibo retracement is located. The 9-day MA breakthrough is quite perplexing, but we’re not ready to say that the bears' victory is final.

Nikolay Dudchenko, Olymp Trade Analyst.

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