French Elections May Put the Euro at Risk

Fundamentals

The traders were tracking the number of initial jobless claims Thursday, which was worse than expected. The forecast was 241,000 new applications, while the actual number was 244,000. With poor fundamentals, the greenback continued to weaken against the common European currency. It should be noted that the euro may be at much higher risk, as the first round of the French election will be this Sunday. We think that the bulls will be cautious about opening new positions. Conservative traders are quite likely to refrain from any euro transactions.
In the UK, the change in retail sales is being released today at 8:30 AM GMT.
At 12:30 PM GMT, the CPI is released in Canada. The index is expected to rise to 0.4% for the month. The official annual inflation rate in Canada is 2%.

Stocks

Philipp Morris released an earnings report yesterday that was not very strong. The company’s EPS fell to $0.98, which is $0.06 below the expected $1.03.
In light of this report, the stock formed a gap down at the opening with an impressive 400-point fall.
The DJIA continues to decline, while the NASDAQ Composite is flat.
Meanwhile, Apple stock managed to break through the middle Bollinger band and took off from the support at $140. The daily charts show there's still some hope for the bulls. The MACDF has started rising, giving a buy signal, and short volumes are dropping. This could mean that the bulls are locking in their profits rather than that the short-term trend is reversing. On the other hand, an Evening Star pattern appeared on the weekly charts, warning of a possible downtrend. Thus, the signals in the various timeframes are mixed. This means it may be a good idea to refrain from trading Apple.
The Russian stock market edged up slightly on Thursday. Analysts, however, point out risks to the domestic market in the form of a new bill before the US Congress. If the Countering Russian Aggression Act passes, we can expect an outflow of capital and, as a result, a further drop in the index. Technically, the RSI is near its oversold territory, but it has not entered it yet. On the daily charts, the Russian benchmark is displaying a “failure swing” from March 10 to April 20. One might say that there is technical basis for a bounce.

Currency Market

The EUR/JPY pair has nearly reached the 118 yen target that we noted earlier. The pair has formed a V-shaped bottom. Technically, the MACD has broken through the signal line, while the RSI crossed the boundary bottom up. Bulls went into action. Whether the uptrend will be for long will be clear early next week.
The AUD/CHF pair is falling. The Aussie now trading between 0.7460 and 0.7600. A bullish counter-attack may follow soon to reach the upper boundary of the channel. This is confirmed by the incipient rise of the RSI and the simultaneous reversal of Directional Movement lines.

Nikolay Dudchenko, Olymp Trade Analyst

Olymp Trade Review