ECB may not surprise market – Trade war still exists

Fear of Trade war with the United States kept stock markets in Asia trade mixed. Investors hope for good negotiation between U.S. President Donald Trump and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker about the tariffs on EU steel 25% and aluminum 10% and Trump's threats to extend those measures to European cars.
Moreover, a Mexican advisor of the incoming administration said the revamp of NAFTA agreement between USA, Mexico and Canada should be concluded in the next few months. China stimulus its internal economic by the fiscal policy which will reduce tax for R&D companies and fund for infrastructures. I think this issue will keep investors worry about the slowdown economy so major stock markets may swing up by the good earning result in second quarter and swing down by the rising risks.
Euro and dollar traded in narrow frame on Wednesday await Trump and Juncker meeting on Wednesday. However, EUR/USD may move in wider range from their internal factors today. I think ECB may keep the interest rate and monetary policy unchanged so it will not surprise and euro may not get support from this factor. But the strong economic data may push U.S. dollar up even IMF commented that U.S. dollar is over value. If EUR/USD rise above 1.1700, I suggest put option to 1.175 points and then 1.1800 points. In contrast, if it falls lower than 1.1650 points, I suggest put options to 1.1600 and then 1.1550 points.
Bitcoin and altcoins price rose with the higher buy volume. Bitcoin rose to 8,500 dollar and drop a little bit so it may take a breath in the narrow frame before breaking 8,500 dollar. In my opinion, If Bitcoin can hold above 8,100 dollar, there is the high possibility to break the resistant line and rise higher to 9,000 dollar.
Economic indices in focus:
• EU: ECB deposit, lending and interest rate decision at 18.45 p.m. and ECB press conference at 19.30 p.m.
• USA: Durable goods orders and Core durable goods orders (Jun) at 19.30 p.m.

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