ECB chair expressed the confident of strong economy of European countries even stock markets fell. Euro Stoxx 50 had fallen since ending of January 2018 but this factor may not affect to economy so it may be a good signal that European market may recover in 2018. In my opinion, the trade tension between USA and China still appear because Trump wants China takes action more than promise so this factor may pressure world stock markets. Trading volume in SET may decline because of the coming Songkran holidays so I suggest support line at 1,750 points.
FOMC meeting minutes early morning at 01.00 a.m. may give the current economic and monetary policy in the United State. I think inflation in USA may grow as Fed expected to 2% and Fed may keep the 3 times hiking interest rate in 2018. This factor may support U.S. dollar hold steady. However, EUR/USD may rise higher than 1.2400 points in the evening, if ECB monetary policy meeting at 18.00 p.m. expresses the strong growth of European economy and good signal of QE. I also suggest seeing U.S. initial jobless claim at 19.30 p.m. which may give negative for dollar, if it is higher than 213000 positions. After the 6-month low nonfarm payroll, other indices of labor market may lower than expected.
War in Syria seems increasing tension so Brent rose above 71USD on Tuesday and Wednesday drop lower. In my view, Syria issue may keep supporting Brent and gold price stand high. A team of Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAML) researchers is arguing that bitcoin is one of the "greatest asset price bubbles in history." In contrast, bitcoin price try to stop falling by holding above 6,500USD.
By Niramon Nitnitiphruet
Financial analyst, Olymp Trade.