34 Billion USD – Trade war starts?

Today is a deadline when tariffs from the U.S. and China value 34 billion dollar are due to be implemented. Major stock markets in Asia including Thailand declined on Thursday because investors concern about the tariffs. SET may try to hold steady above 1,600 points so I suggest the support line at 1,600 points and resistant line at 1,620 points.
Major currencies including U.S. dollar were on tenterhooks on Thursday as the worries about U.S. imposes tariffs on 818 Chinese import goods. But British pound rose up on Wednesday supporting by 8-month high service PMI. GBP/USD may hold steady above 1.3200 (support line) and it may swing between 1.3200-1.3250 points. However, GBP/USD may fall lower than the support line, if greenback gets good support from the United States strong labor market. Loonie rose highest in a year at 1.3387 last week and drop lower to swing around 1.3120-1.3200 points this week. Canada also responded U.S. trade war and this issue may affect to its economic growth. Therefore, USD/CAD may swing in the same frame or rose above 1.3200, if U.S. dollar gets support from Fed policy.
Oil price fell lower a little bit after OPEC increased supply higher but it seems too little for the United States so Trump «twitted» “REDUCE PRICING NOW!” I think Trump’s demand may not achieve as he also prepare a new sanction for Iran so Brent may hold steady above 77 dollar per barrel.
Bitcoin and altcoins price decrease in 2018 but the trading volume may increase not only individual but also institutions. Coinbase launched “Custody Service” for institutional hedge funds and other clients who can deposit a minimum of $10 million. This is one of the progress of crypto market in 2018.
Economic indices in focus:
• USA: Nonfarm Payrolls (Jun) and Unemployment Rate (Jun) at 19.30 p.m.
• Canada: Employment Change (Jun) at 19.30 p.m. and Ivey PMI (Jun) at 21.00 p.m.

By Niramon Nitnitiphruet
Financial analyst, Olymp Trade.

Olymp Trade Review