Up until now, we had a downward trend which was also confirmed by the priority trend; this trend is now over – it was broken by the closing price yesterday. We now very clearly have a new trend here, although it is moving in contrast to the big picture, meaning that it should be enjoyed with a certain amount of caution. But when we look at the big picture, we have a lot of space upwards before we reach 11400! This is one aspect that makes it challenging to trade in the DAX.
The hour is not really on our side for trading in the daily chart because we do not have a trend right now. The exorbitant movements from last week have done away with all our trends for the moment. In the hour now, we would need a closing price above 10040 to generate a new trend here; only then would we have a new correction zone here with a young new uptrend that would definitely have the strength to continue. Currently here, however, we’re basically trend less.
Looking at the 5-minute chart, we see that it is in a valid trend.
This week we have the Federal Reserve decision on Wednesday, and with the Japanese adjusting interest rates as well as the big expiry day coming up this Friday, there are many aspects to consider. When you take all of this into account we have two major options: in the upper area at approx. 10200, and on the lower side at about 9800. And depending on the movements that take place tomorrow night with the FEDs, we will most likely be swinging back and forth around this area until Friday. Currently, though, it appears as if we are leaning more towards the upper side.
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