The September nonfarm payrolls data will be released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. According to the median estimates of economists polled, the US economy is expected to add just 88k jobs during the month of September.
The weak pace of job gains are attributed to the disruptions caused by the hurricanes Irma, Harvey, and Maria.
The weak print expected for September is however likely to be a temporary blip. The Fed already acknowledged the downside risks from the natural disasters, in its September FOMC meeting. As a result, the market reaction could be muted. However, some downside risks persist if the actual headline payrolls come out weaker than the estimates.
On the unemployment rate, the median estimates call for an unchanged print. The US official unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 4.4%, unchanged from the previous month.
U.S. Nonfarm payrolls trend and forecasts. Source: Tradingeconomics.com
Wages are expected to be a bright spot with economists predicting a 0.3% increase in wages for September. This would show some strong acceleration from 0.1% increase registered in August.
Overall, the US labor market data is likely to fall in line with the prevailing trend, and even a worse than expected print on all fronts is unlikely to move the Fed much into postponing its rate hike plans for the fourth quarter.
Inflation is likely to dominate with recent reports suggesting that inflation in the US continues to remain sluggish.
Read more: https://www.orbex.com/blog/2017/10/september-nonfarm-payrolls-preview-weaker-jobs-expected