Oil is trading in an aggressive bearish trend. The asset broke through the lower border of two-month price channel and continued to fall impulsively. Next, the key level of $60 per barrel was broken, and at the moment, quotes are trading below $57. Thus, the decline from the last local maximum of July 31 is more than 13% or $8.5. Oil returned to the values of December 2018 - January 2019. The nearest support zone is in the area of $54-56. The first attempts to buy off the downward movement and the beginning of consolidation can be expected.
The collapse occurred due to new fears that the United States will introduce new duties on Chinese imports from September 1, and China will retaliate. China's state-owned agricultural firms will stop buying US agricultural products. The risks of escalating the trade war are still high and the market is laying them at the current price.
The Ministry of Energy in its monthly report lowered its forecast for oil production in the country in 2019 (12.3 million BPD) and maintained it for 2020 (13.3 million BPD).
The agency also lowered its estimate of Brent crude oil price. So, in the second half of 2019, it is expected to reach $64, and in 2020 - $ 65. It was previously expected that in 2019 and 2020, Brent would rise to $67. Fitch Solutions also lowered its forecast for the next three years. Their analysts believe that oil will average $67 this year, $ 65 next year, and $61 in 2021.