The calendar gets heavier this week. On the central-bank front, it’s the turn of the FOMC and the BoE. Neither of these two Banks is expected to alter its policy, and thus, investors will focus on any signals with regards to their future plans. The BoE will also publish its quarterly Inflation Report, which includes its updated economic projections. As for the data, the highlights are likely to be the US employment report for April, Eurozone’s GDP for Q1, the bloc’s preliminary CPIs for April, and New Zealand’s jobs data for Q1. What’s more, on Tuesday, US officials will travel to China for another round of trade talks.
On Monday, the calendar appears relatively light, with the only noteworthy releases being the US personal income for March, personal spending for both February and March, as well as the core PCE index for both of these months. Personal income is forecast to have accelerated to +0.4% mom in March from +0.2%, but taking into account the slide in the monthly earnings rate for the month, we view the risks surrounding the forecast as tilted to the downside. The personal spending rate is expected to have risen to +0.2% mom in February from +0.1%, and the March figure is expected to come out at +0.7%.
With regards to the yoy rate of the core PCE index, it is anticipated to have ticked down to +1.7% yoy in February from +1.8% in January, but the March number is believed to...
Read the full financial markets weekly outlook on JFD Research.