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RBNZ: it's a confidence thing


By Giles Coghlan, Chief Currency Analyst at HYCM

Business confidence to be precise

Business confidence is a key input for the RBNZ and the data out on Thursday at 0100am will be important for the RBNZ.

The last reading of -53.5 was the lowest reading since 2009. As this is a monthly survey I am expecting the result to be better this month. Why? Well it will depend on one thing- When is the survey is sent around? You see the survey itself asks questions of belief. Questions like 'Do you believe that General Business Conditions in 12 months will have - improved, remain the same or deteriorated?

Here is a sample of the questions:

So, if these questions are asked after the Phase 1 Us-China potential deal was announced then business confidence will have improved. So, I am expecting an uptick in business confidence on this reasoning. A weak reading here and AUNZD longs should remain supported with buyers on pullbacks after the firm AUD CPI data from last night.

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Source: https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/!/rbnz-its-a-confidence-thing-20191030
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