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ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 September 19
Personal opinions today:
Yesterday, August CPI in the UK and Eurozone was lower than expected, and August CPI in Canada was only in line with expectations. The related currencies had an excellent performance against the dollar, but the dollar recovered after the Fed's interest rate meeting to limit the rise. The four major central banks, including the federal reserve, Bank of Japan, Swiss national bank and Bank of England, announced the results of interest rate hikes today. Today the federal reserve has announced the rate cut, Federal chairman Powell in the press conference, he said the Fed would consider cutting rates if necessary, and did not directly indicate the beginning of the rate reduction cycle. Since then, the dollar has rebounded from its low.
Monetary policy announcements from the Bank of Japan, the Swiss national bank and the Bank of England today are expected to remain mostly unchanged. But the BoJ has a chance to consider expanding its quantitative easing monetary policy in preparation for an increase in the consumption tax in October. It is believed that the market will pay most attention to the remarks when Bank of Japan governor Haruhiko holds a press conference. The SNB also needs to keep an eye out for any rate cuts. The content of the BOE meetings and the proportion of its nine voting members are even more critical to the bank's decision on interest rates. At present, the central bank monetary policy is generally loose, financial downside risks, gold prices are likely to maintain the trend. The performance of US economic data is worth watching during US trading session. Dow futures were influenced by initial jobless claims, the U.S. second-quarter current account and the performance of the Philadelphia fed manufacturing index in September. Also, take note of what the U.S. President and federal officials said today, which affected the Dow and the dollar, indirectly affecting gold and oil prices.
[important financial data and events]
Note: * is the degree of importance
09:00 Australia unemployment rate in August ***
11:00 Bank of Japan interest rate decision ***
14:00 Swiss August trade account **
14:30 Bank of Japan press conference ***
15:30 Swiss national bank interest rate decision ***
16:00 Eurozone July current account **
16:30 UK Retail sales in August **
19:00 Bank of England interest rate decision and minutes ***
20:30 U.S. jobless claims last week **
20:30 U.S. current account
20:30 U.S. Philadelphia fed manufacturing index ***
22:00 US Existing home sales and leading indicator **
Eurozone monthly CPI growth in August was in line with expectations and had led the euro higher. After the fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, no further rate cuts were indicated, and the dollar rebounded, which indirectly led to Euro outflows and bearish Euro. Technical Euro below 20-hour and 10-hour moving averages, limited to 1.1050 resistance. The euro zone's current account for July and UK retail sales for August were the first concerns in European trading today. Subsequently, the Euro is likely to follow sterling during the announcement of the Bank of England interest rate and monetary policy results.
Pound against US dollar
After the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, no further rate cuts were indicated, and the dollar rebounded, which indirectly led to an outflow of funds from the British pound, which was bearish. European trading session today, watching the UK August retail sales. Subsequently, the Bank of England interest rates and monetary policy results during the expected release, the pound volatility. Technically, 1.2520 and 1.2550 resistances are significant. Such resistance would be harder to break without the Bank of England's stimulative comments to the bullish British pound.
Australian dollar to US dollar
The minutes of the reserve bank of Australia's September monetary policy meeting, released last week, were dovish and did not stimulate investor sentiment or publish negative news. The market after the Fed interest rate, and no further interest rate reduction intention, the US dollar rose, bearish Australian dollar. Yesterday this analysis pointed out that the federal reserve did not indicate the beginning of the interest rate cutting cycle, the dollar strong, bearish Australian dollar. The New Zealand dollar follows the Australian dollar. Note that the Australian and New Zealand dollars fluctuated during the Fed's announcement.
US economic data growth, the federal reserve cut interest rates moderately, not to say further rate cuts, the dollar rose. The yen came downward today after the Bank of Japan raised interest rates amid a possible widening of its quantitative easing policy. After the interest rate decision, wait and see Bank of Japan governor press conference. If there is no final policy adjustment, Nikkei index futures fell, the dollar followed the trend against the yen. If the Fed cuts interest rates, Nikkei index futures and Dow futures rose further, indirectly bullish dollar/yen trend. Technically, the dollar broke through 108.40 resistance against the yen, but the dollar fluctuated against the yen as the market waited for the BoJ minutes. Note after interest rate, and the trend reversed down 107 level.
U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar
Saudi oil supplies have partially recovered, the Fed 's rate cut was modest, and crude futures prices fell, indirectly hurting the Canadian dollar. Canada CPI fell in August, in line with market expectations, but the Canada data was weak and bearish for the Canadian dollar. Take note of what the U.S. President and federal reserve officials said today, which affected the Dow future and the dollar stronger, indirectly affecting crude oil prices and the Canadian dollar.
US crude oil futures
Saudi crude oil supply system has been attacked. Some crude oil supply is partially recovered. Crude oil futures also fell as U.S. API crude inventories rose. Crude oil futures supply is expected to stabilize slowly. Fundamentals limit the upside for crude oil and have any chance to fall. Technically, keep watching the important support 57.05. Note 60.75 significant resistance. At present, the federal reserve did not say the beginning of the interest rate reduction cycle, bearish crude oil price. Oil futures could get a bullish, depending on tensions between the U.S. and Iran.
The Fed cut rates as expected, but Fed Chairman comment that it was not considering cutting rates at its next meeting. Now watch for other central banks to follow suit and cut interest rates or ease policy further, bullish gold prices. If Dow futures rise, the gold price could fall. Looking at the US economic data performance today indirectly affected the price of gold. Technically, the gold price is at a critical support level of $1,483. Without a break in support, the gold price rally remains unchanged.
U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
The market is watching the U.S. economic data today, indirectly affecting Dow futures. Market expectations of the federal reserve this year meeting, the room to cut interest rates is limited. Until the US and China trade war is resolved, or the fed can lower interest rates further, which could affect bullish Dow futures and only test resistance. Otherwise, watch for downside risks to Dow futures.
10550 /10950 resistance
10150 / 9850 support
The market expected the FOMC cut-rate and monetary policy remained, the bitcoin price is looking go up. Incoming, we have to look at the Dow future fell, the bitcoin price and cryptocurrencies would upward. If Dow future keeps rise, please aware the bitcoin price go down first.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
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