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ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 September 16
Personal opinions today:
Four major Central Banks, the Fed, Bank of Japan, Central Bank of Switzerland and the Bank of England, announced interest rates on Thursday. The dollar index fell from a high of 99 as markets focused on the Fed. That's because the US CME rate Futures market puts the odds of a 25 basis point cut at 92%, up from a week ago. The dollar is still expected to move lower before the Fed's announcement. If the technical correction continues, the dollar index has a chance to look down at 97.35 support before the Fed's policy meeting or when the results are released. The Bank of Japan and the Bank of England intend to step up QE monetary policy and expect the yen to gain only a limited amount when the dollar falls. But there are downside risks To the British pound and the Euro.
Gold and silver prices are expected to rise as major central Banks could cut interest rates. And Dow futures (US30) and global stocks are generally expected to rise, cause by low-interest rates expect. Besides, an attack on Saudi Arabia's oil supply system The price of oil futures has risen. The US President then said he would supply strategic crude. Oil prices fell after Saudi oil suppliers said they expected regular supplies to resume in a week. If crude oil futures prices keep Rising, they could be bullish on the Dow, but maybe not like this. The Dow probably limited 27345.
[Important financial data and events]
Note: * is the degree of importance
Japan's Tokyo stock exchange is closed
06:45 New Zealand service sector index for August *
16:00 Italy CPI for August **
19:15 ECB Chief economist speaking **
20:30 US New York manufacturing index for September ***
21:00 Canada Existing home sales in August **
22:00 Canada National economic confidence index **
After the European central bank meeting, the market thought the rate cut was too low, the quantitative easing plan did not take effect in time, and the economic recovery timetable was pushed back. The euro broke resistance to its 20-day average, with losses Current technical expectations, the Euro with 20 and 10 days average 1.1052 and 1.1040 as support, if 1.1110 resistance can not break, the US September New York fed manufacturing index, better than market expectations, and expect US industrial output to rise tomorrow, the dollar performance is strong, the Euro is affected and have a chance go down.
Pound against dollar
The British prime minister has made it clear that a better deal can be found before the October 31 deadline for Britain to leave the European Union, with the Northern Ireland border being the critical issue. Resolving the issue by agreeing to a nonlinear could bullish British pound This week, the focus is on the interest rate meetings of the federal reserve and the Bank of England. The former market has already priced in the pound as high as 1.2500. If markets fear that the Bank of England will follow the ECB and The federal reserve in cutting interest rates, the pound will bear the downside risk. Technically, please note that 1.2500 has become one of the significant resistance. If the resistance to 1.2505 or 1.2525 fails to break, keep an eye on the opportunity to test below 1.2420 and 1.2385 before the Fed and Bank of England meeting.
Australian dollar to US dollar
The broad correction on Monday coincided with a rise in US retail sales and Michigan consumer confidence last week and a drop in the New Zealand service sector index today, with the Australian and New Zealand dollars falling. The market is watching US data today and tomorrow, And the dollar is stronger on the outcome of growth. It is worth watching today's Chinese economic data, if the performance of strong growth, indirect bullish Australian dollar, may test resistance. On the other hand, if it's going down, test the support. It Is believe that the New Zealand dollar will continue to follow the trend and pace of the Australian dollar against the US dollar.
Dollar to yen
Dow futures (US30) and Nikkei index futures (JPN225) fell at the opening bell in Asia, while the dollar followed the yen. The expected increase in US data today and tomorrow is expected to limit the Dow's decline, while the dollar can maintain correction Of 50%, support at 107.50. If the US data falls, the result may be lower than previous values and expectations, Dow futures and Nikkei futures may fall and believe in leading the dollar to fall against the yen. The performance of China's economic data Is also resultworthy today. As a result, Asian stock markets, especially Nikkei index futures, may be affected, indirectly affecting the dollar-yen trend. In terms of technical analysis, 108.25 resistance is more noteworthy.
US dollar to Canadian dollar
Noted that existing home prices in Canada are expected to fall, while US data are expected to rise, bearish for the Canadian dollar. If crude oil futures prices fall back and the Canadian dollar Loss support, it will be bearish for the Canadian dollar. Note the 1.3200 and 1.3175 support levels, respectively.
US crude oil futures
An attack on Saudi Arabia's oil supply system has sharply reduced supplies of crude oil, boosting crude oil futures. But oil futures are stabilizing after the US President opened up his strategic oil reserves and Saudi Arabia resumed regular supplies as soon as a week later. Prices will be weak if supplies stabilize, and the US continues to ease sanctions on Iran to boost supplies. Technically, expect the subordinate support 58.70 and 57.05 support, pay attention to 60.70 or 62.65 resistance.
If Dow futures rise before the meeting, the gold price will accompany the bullish. But with Dow futures down, Gold won't drop much. Strong US economic data today and tomorrow could limit gold's price gains. Probably the price goes down. It's time to look the price up.
U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
Last week, Dow futures' trend was expected to have a chance to reverse. If Dow futures breakthrough 27,075 support, they will have the opportunity to dip below recommendation 26,870 support. The market is watching the performance of the US economic data today and tomorrow. An active reading could lift Dow futures, pushing up resistance to 27205 and 27305 if the US data are going well and over the market expectation.
10550 /10950 resistance
10150 / 9850 support
The market expected the FOMC might rate cut incoming monetary policy decision this Thursday; the bitcoin price is looking go up. In the beginning, we have looked at the Dow future fell, the bitcoin price and cryptocurrencies would move upward. If Dow future rise, Please aware the bitcoin price go down.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
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