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ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Aug 8
Personal opinions today:
U.S. President and federal reserve officials said interest rates could be cut, and the U.S. government eased some restrictions on imports of Chinese telecommunications equipment suppliers. The Dow future closed near yesterday's high, while Asian stocks followed. But the trade war between the United States and China and a slowing investment climate could still limit gains in global stocks.
Keep a close eye on Japan economic outlook today, the European central bank economic bulletin and U.S. jobless claims. The JPY and European currencies could fall if Japan economic outlook and the European central bank economic bulletin forecast a recession and deflation, which could ease monetary policy toward. In addition, U.S. jobless claims and wholesale sales data will test the U.S. economic outlook ahead of the release tomorrow of US producer price index. The U.S. data could influence expectations for U.S. consumer prices index forecast and the dollar trends.
[Important financial data and events]
07:50 Japan trade account June
10:00 China trade account July
13:00 Japan economic outlook for July
14:30 France BOF business confidence index for July
16:00 European central bank economic bulletin
20:30 U.S. initial jobless claims
20:30 Canada new home prices June
22:00 U.S. wholesale sales June
Today suggestion :
Europe's economy has yet to see a significant recovery, but the trade war between the United States and China is heating up, and European currencies have become a safe haven in the new situation. Despite the lack of evidence for growth in the European currency, but we should watching the ECB economic bulletin. Also, look at U.S. economic data today and tomorrow. If the US data is weak, European currencies are likely to see some uptrend. Now may watch, 1.1250 for important resistance.
Britain facing a hard Brexit at the end of October is bearish for the pound. As the trade war between China and the United States heats up, the federal reserve is calling for a cut in interest rates, undermining the dollar and stabilizing pound. Technically, the pound is stuck at 1.22 against the dollar. If the U.S. economic data is stable and Britain has no deal with the risk of Brexit , the pound may not break through the 1.22 resistance. Preliminary estimates now suggest the pound has strengthened at 1.21, with the expectation that new news will spur a move in pound.
Rising trade between China and the United States hurt China's economy and hurt the economies and exports of Australia and New Zealand, with the Australian and New Zealand dollars falling respectively. Yesterday the federal reserve bank of New Zealand suddenly announced cut interest 50 basis point, the NZD fell, indirectly affecting the Australian dollar. But RBNZ said they were now lowering rates, signaling no intention of cutting them again. If U.S. economic data is weak, and U.S. inflation data is weak tomorrow and next Tuesday, the fed may consider further rate cuts, which could bullish the Australian and New Zealand dollars.
The Dow, the Nikkei and the USDJPY are roughly in line. When the Dow and the Nikkei fell, the dollar falls against the yen. But it remains to be seen in Japan economic outlook today. A further easing of monetary policy by the bank of Japan and the federal reserve could bullish the yen. Technically, pay attention to 106.50 and 106.70 resistance. If the Dow and Nikkei rebound, the dollar could see resistance of 106.50 and 106.70 against the yen. Otherwise, it would go down to the 105.55 level. Note the dollar against the yen two times to try 105.55 support, looking forward to double bottom or triple bottom is not broken, may rebound.
U.S. President and federal reserve officials intended to cut interest rates and the U.S. government eased some restrictions on imports of Chinese telecommunications equipment suppliers, helping to spur demand for crude oil. Signs of a short-term resolution of the trade war between China and the United States could bullish U.S. crude prices. The price of crude oil rose, indirectly benefiting for Canadian dollars. Technically, the USDCAD will likely end up at 1.33 and move down at 1.3245 or below.
US crude oil futures
U.S. President and federal reserve officials intended to cut interest rates and the U.S. government eased some restrictions on imports of Chinese telecommunications equipment suppliers, increasing demand for crude oil. If oil futures break through $53.30, they could technically test the $55 level. Pay close attention to the trade war between China and the United States, and judge the trend based on good and bad news. Technically, the U.S. crude oil futures price has been adjusted to test the support of the low of $50.60 in early June, and if the rebound breaks through 53.30, it will look at 54.50 and 55.70.
The U.S. President and federal reserve officials said interest rate cuts had triggered a global stock market rally, with gold rising and then falling. The us government's easing of some import restrictions on Chinese telecommunications equipment suppliers will help improve china-us trade relations. China says it plans to hold trade talks with the United States in September. The dow Jones industrial average, the nikkei and global stock markets rebounded, while gold was bearish. Technically, gold is estimated to have hit $1,500. Yesterday good market news, investor sentiment improved. A strong dow and nikkei would further depress gold prices.
U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
U.S. President and federal reserve officials intends to cut interest rates, the U.S. government eased some restrictions on imports of Chinese telecommunications equipment suppliers, and China government in Beijing said its planned September trade talks with the U.S. would help improve U.S. trade relations, triggering a global stock market rally that lifted the Dow rebound at the end of market close last night The Dow could be up 26520 if the President doesn't want to spoil the talks and there are no negative comments.
12050 / 12300 resistance
10850 / 10600 support
As the trade war between China and US heats up, Dow and other major stocks fell, hedge fund inflows to other capital market, bearish US dollar and bullish bitcoin. However, the sentiment maybe change, bearish bitcoin and other crypto currencies. Recommend check out the trends of gold price and compares the bitcoin price.
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Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
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