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ATFX Update Market - 2019.08.01


Personal opinions today:

The fed cut interest rate within market expectations, the Fed fund rate falling to a range of 2 to 2.25 per cent. Fed chairman Powell said that the fed's rate cut does not represent the beginning of a cycle of rate cuts, the fed will consider the economy and inflation and economic downturn risk, and then decide whether to cut interest rates. The comments made the market judgment that the federal reserve does not need to cut interest rates in the near term, bullish dollar. But Dow fell nearly 400 points yesterday. Asian markets opened with Nikkei, China A50 and HK50 futures down. Believe European markets early, European stocks opened lower. If global stock markets fall, there is an opportunity for money to flow into the yen and gold. The federal reserve has said it will cut interest rates in the near future, with no results in China and US trade talks and crude oil futures prices likely to fall. Here are some important financial data to watch today.

Bank of England monetary policy and press conference is likely to be the biggest focus today. After the British prime minister took hard Brexit, the risk of economic risk has increased. If the Bank of England were to cut rates early or bank of England governor said at a press conference that future rate cuts would be considered, it would be a negative for pound and euro. On the contrary, if interest rates remain unchanged and forward-looking monetary policy stance remains unchanged, it is expected to bullish pound and euro.

[Important financial data and events]

09:45 China caixin manufacturing PMI for July
15:50 French manufacturing PMI for July
15:55 German manufacturing PMI for July
16:00 Eurozone manufacturing PMI for July
16:30 UK manufacturing PMI for July
19:00 Bank of England interest rate decision
19:30 Bank of England governor press conference at
19:30 U.S. challenger layoffs in July
20:30 U.S.initial jobless claims
21:45 U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI for July
22:00 U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI in July

Today suggestion:

1.1085/1.1100 resistance
1.1020/1.1005 support
U.S. July ADP payrolls were in line with expectations, and markets were pricing in a positive reading. FOMC interest rate forward guidance, the Fed does not plan to cut interest rate cycle. But the European central bank and the Bank of England are willing to ease monetary policy, which is bearish for the euro. Bank of England interest rate decision and bank of England governor held a press conference today. If any forward guidance is bearish on pound, the euro could be fall. Technically, the euro is testing support bits 1.1020 and 1.1005. Believe the trend of the euro indirectly affected the Swiss franc trend.

1.2205/1.2230 resistance
1.2065/1.2045 support
The new British prime minister says the Brexit deal that his predecessor negotiated with the European Union is end and he is going to start all over again. Britain may face a hard Brexit. The FOMC cut interest rates by only 25 basis points, and the Fed chairman said he had no intention of starting a cycle of rate cuts. Bank of England interest rate decision today. If any forward guidance is bearish on pound, the pound could test the 1.20 level. Adjust the wave support level according to 1.2065.

0.6825/0.6805 support
0.6850/0.6870 resistance
U.S. July ADP payrolls were in line with expectations and the fed's modest rate cut boosted the dollar. In addition, another key issue was the lack of progress in the trade talks, with the Australian and New Zealand dollars falling as market concerns mounted. For now, the market is watching US official non-farm payrolls data, the unemployment rate and average wages. Also, the market is waiting for the latest news on trade talks. The Australian dollar is expected to stabilize after the official U.S. nonfarm payrolls data, before the RBA meets next Tuesday. In addition, next Wednesday is the RBNZ interest rate announcement, please note.

109.25/109.40 resistance
108.75/108.55 support
After the federal reserve FOMC announced the rate cut, the fed policy statement and chairman of the press conference said that the need for future rate cuts was not considered, boosting the dollar to 109 yen exchange rate. But watching the nikkei and dow fall could push the dollar lower against the yen. Technically, it is recommended to focus on 109.25 or 109.40 resistance. Looking down first target 108.75 or 108.55 support. Of course, the dollar's losses against the yen are likely to be limited in anticipation of strong us data ahead of tomorrow's non-farm payrolls data.

1.3220/1.3245 resistance
1.3175/1.3150 support
U.S. ADP payroll match expectations, while Canada's data was weak. The Fed chairman said no plans to begin a rate cut cycle. U.S. crude oil prices fell, indirectly affecting the Canadian dollar. The current analysis estimates that the USDCAD adjustment wave is testing 1.3125 or 1.3105 support. Finally, all these negative factors, the USDCAD tested 1.32 levels. Currently estimated USDCAD is being adjusted, with first targets 1.3175 and 1.3150 supported.

US oil crude futures
58.00/58.60 resistance
57.15/56.30 support
The 12th China and US trade negotiations has ended with no results. The fed chairman said there were no long-term plans to cut rates. These factors affect the demand for crude oil, indirect negative crude oil prices. Oil prices could hit $59 to $60 if the FOMC releases a rate cut of more than 25 basis points, no more intended to cut further. So far the Fed has cut rates by only a quarter of a percentage point, and the statement said it did not keep cutting rates, estimating that oil prices could fall below $57 or below.

1417/1420 resistance
1405/1402 support
Gold prices fell after the fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, pushing the price below1411 support. The Fed is not considering further rate cuts, limiting gold's rise. However, the dow fell, may be bullish gold, please note. If gold price remains supported at 1405 or 1402 and keeps above that level in the short term, it could test the resistance target of 1417 or 1420.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
27080/27220 resistance
26850/26750 support
The Dow has risen even as U.S. ADP employment rose to 150,000 in July and the federal reserve cut interest rates. But the fed disappointed markets by saying future rate cuts would be limited. In addition, If U.S. jobless claims and the July ISM manufacturing PMI are weak today, watch out the Dow fall.

10150 / 10400 resistance
9500 / 9350 support
US ADP job data reached the market expectation. FOMC only cut 25 basic point interest rate, Fed said no intention to further cut interest rate. Bullish US dollar, bearish bitcoin. Now forecast the bitcoin resistance at 10150 and 10400. Lower support may watching 9350.

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Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.

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