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ATFX Market Outlook, 2020 Jan 9
Personal opinions today:
Risk aversion cooled and U.S. ADP job data beat market expectations at 202K. The dollar was supported by forecasts tonight that U.S. jobless claims fell and non-farm payrolls rose. In addition, the U.S. and China would sign a first-phase deal this month. Investment sentiment rose, risk aversion cooled and money flowed out of gold and the yen.
During the European session, markets looked at Germany's November trade and current account and German industrial output. Then, the Bank of England governor speech and the Eurozone released. The European data and Bank of England governor speech time, the European currency is expected to fluctuate. During the U.S. market session, the market was waiting to see if the U.S. jobless claims.
British Parliament Brexit vote tonight. The pound has a chance to rise as the Brexit deal to pass. If Brexit approved, the gold could fall, crude oil could upward.
[Important financial data and events] note: * is important
09:30 China CPI ***
15:00 Germany Trade account and Current account ***
15:00 German Industrial output **
15:30 Swiss Retail sales **
17:30 Bank of England governor speech **
18:00 Eurozone unemployment rate ***
21:00 Federal reserve vice-chairman Larry speech **
21:30 U.S. jobless claims ***
To be confirmed: The British House of Commons vote on the Brexit deal ***
The next day02:45: Bank of Canada governor speech ***
European currencies could gain support as tensions ease over Iran. But the Euro fell after the dollar rose last night after the U.S. reported better-than-expected ADP job data for December. Today, markets are focusing on Germany's November trade and current account and industrial output. There were also concerns about a vote in the British House of Commons on the Brexit deal bill. If the above-mentioned data beat expectations and passes a bill to Brexit, it could bullish the Euro. It is now estimated that Euro tests 1.1105 and 1.1095 support.
Pound to dollar
As Iran tensions over, markets look forward to a vote in the house of Commons on the Brexit deal bill tonight or tomorrow morning. If successful, the UK investment climate is expected to improve, the pound has a chance to rise. Technical analysis, the 1.3282 is significant resistance, short-term support look at 1.3080 and 1.3060, resistance 1.3185 and 1.3205.
Australian dollar to dollar
Although the RBA has mentioned it will cut interest rates at its February meeting, interest rate futures show a chance of a rate cut of more than 60% in June, a bearish for the Australian dollar. But the Australian dollar after a significant adjustment, believe to be close to the point of support. The Australian and New Zealand dollars are expected to rebound after the U.S. and China sign a trade deal together this month that could bullish the Australian economy and lower expectations of a rate cut.
Dollar to yen
Risk aversion cooled and global stock markets rebounded, pushing the USDJPY to break through the 109 barriers. Technically, Dow and Nikkei futures continue to rise, and the dollar will follow suit, USDJPY testing highs. But the mood in the Middle East changes from time to time, and stock markets can adjust from time to time.
Crude Oil prices fell as tensions eased and supplies avoided disruption. On top of that, the U.S. dollar rose against the Canadian dollar in anticipation of U.S. jobs data. Markets are focused on U.S. initial jobless claims tonight and a speech by Bank of Canada governor. Technically, USDCAD could test 1.3055 and 1.3065 resistance.
US crude oil futures
Crude oil prices fell as tensions in the Middle East eased and supplies were expected to stabilize. If times stay tight and risk aversion rises, crude could test another $65. The advice must be cautious, pay attention to crude oil price volatility.
Gold prices fell as events in the Middle East changed. U.S. jobs data beat market expectations and Dow futures rebounded, sending gold and silver prices lower. For now, we suggest keeping an eye on the situation, as well as the Brexit vote, and waiting for the outcome. If there is any movement in Dow futures and Nikkei index futures, you can refer to it and capture the movement in the price of gold.
U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
Dow futures rebounded as tensions eased in the Middle East and U.S. jobs data beat expectations. This month, China and the United States signed the first phase of a trade deal. On top of that, the market expects corporate earnings to grow, and dow futures are expected to keep rising if negative sentiment doesn't recur. Now, keep an eye on the dow futures correction for tomorrow's non-farm payrolls data.
8250 / 8500 resistance
7550 / 7300 support
Dow futures rebounded as tensions eased in the Middle East and U.S. jobs data beat expectations, bearish the bitcoin price. Investors expected U.S. non-farm payroll good, the bitcoin downward.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
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