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ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Dec 18
Personal opinions today:
International trade sentiment eased, and U.S. economic data did well. U.S. President said the federal reserve should ease policy and keep lower interest rates. U.S. stocks continue to rise, Dow futures test again at 28360. The above factors have driven up the price of crude oil. But API crude inventories rose more than expected last week and crude oil prices adjusted from high levels.
During the European market session today, focus on German November PPI, European central bank President speech and Eurozone November CPI. UK CPI and Retail price index for November. Among them, the European central bank President Christine Lagarde gave a speech, monetary policy and the outlook for the Eurozone economy, which is very important. Second, it is worth noting that the Eurozone CPI in November will influence the ECB's monetary policy in the future. U.S. market time, watch federal reserve governor attend a panel meeting and Canada's November CPI. Canadian CPl data, influence is more important, pay attention to the Canadian dollar volatility.
[Important financial data and events] note: * is important
15:00 German November PPI **
16:30 ECB President, Christine Lagarde speech ***
17:00 German IFO business climate index **
17:30 UK November CPI and Retail price index ***
18:00 Eurozone November CPI ***
18:15 Fed governor attends meetings **
21:30 Canada November CPI ***
23:30 US EIA crude oil inventories change **
Eurozone economic data, yesterday's eurozone trade account beat market expectations, positive for the euro. Eurozone consumer prices are expected to rise in November from last month as trade accounts rose yesterday and consumer spending in the fourth quarter was forecast to rise. It is currently trading against dollar resistance of 1.1155 and 1.1165 and yesterday's high of 1.1172. If the data is only in line with expectations and the euro again fails to test high, we expect 1.1125 or 1.1115 support, and we expect 1.1080 important support if we break out.
Pound to dollar
U.K. manufacturing and services sector PMI fell in December, while the BoE monetary policy and minutes remained upbeat about the economic outlook. This afternoon the UK CPI and Retail price index for November were watched for growth and pound was expected to be lifted by the BoE interest rate decision. Preliminary technical support is at 1.3085. See 1.3155 resistance above.
Australian dollar to Dollar
The RBA monetary policy record for December kept the economic outlook unclear, with the RBA expected to cut interest rates next year in Q1. Yesterday this analysis recommended that the Australian dollar downside risk. At present, the RBA policy record is expected to rise after the Australian dollar consolidation. As long as the global economic climate is expected to improve, the fundamentals should be bullish for the Australian dollar. It is recommended to pay attention to low support 0.6845, looking forward to the future rebound, test 0.6900.
Dollar to yen
Dow futures rose again, with the dollar following suit against the yen. Tomorrow the Bank of Japan monetary policy decision, the market is expected to continue monetary policy easing, bearish the yen. But keep an eye on U.S. Dow futures (US30) and Nikkei futures index (JPN225), which dominate dollar-yen trading. Current 109.40 or 109.30 support, up to 109.75 or 109.85 resistance.
The climate for global trade has improved, the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement has been implemented, and foresee Canada economy has grown. On the other hands, crude oil prices rose, the indirect bullish of the Canadian dollar. After the Canadian inflation data released in the evening, the trend of the Canadian dollar has changed significantly. Technically, USDCAD is expected to test 1.31 support. Also, keep an eye on the trend of crude oil prices, indirectly affect the trends of the Canadian dollar.
US crude oil futures
Crude oil prices upward since the U.S. government suspended its tariff plan, Brexit was more transparent and expected crude oil demand rose in Q4. Crude oil prices rose after a report that U.S. crude oil inventories rose last week. Crude oil prices test $60.95 resistance stopped. Technical note crude oil price at $60.95 resistance, note the correction.
Markets watched the monetary policy meetings of the BoJ and the BoE, with gold prices hovering between $1,470 and $1,480 in the near term. If there is no change in monetary policy in Japan and the UK, the gold price could be downside. Separately, gold prices fell on Friday as U.S. third-quarter GDP was reported and market expectations for growth picked up. Suggest a short run between $1470 and $1480, and prepare for a high correction down, more likely to break $1468.
U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
Investor sentiment increased in anticipation of a higher U.S. Q3 GDP, and Dow futures closed at a record high. But note that before the end of the year, when financial institutions traditionally close their positions for profit on assets, Dow futures could adjust at any time. Technically, if the Dow futures at 28360, Dow futures near the critical resistance level, watch for a reversal.
6980/ 7085 resistance
6335/ 6185 support
The federal reserve announced the suspension of interest rate cuts, bearish for Bitcoin price. Only If the market risk on and the Dow future deeply fall, it could bullish cryptocurrency and the bitcoin price could rebound.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
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