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ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Nov 26
Personal opinions today:
The market is predicting that China and the United States will sign the first phase of a trade agreement next month. It expected that the US government would continue to suspend import tariffs on China. Also, the recent U.S. economic data recorded growth; the next two days are expected to release the U.S. data may also show growth. In particular, the US, the final real GDP for the third quarter can maintain 1.9%. The result will release on Wednesday. The federal reserve will report a Beige book, update the US economic conditions. With good predictions, led by the dollar index and Dow futures rose. Bearish for gold, silver and Japanese yen. The crude oil price predicts the market is waiting for U.S. API crude oil inventory data for last week release. If the inventory is lower than the week before, bullish crude oil prices.
In European markets today, focus on Germany December Gfk consumer confidence index and RBA President David Lowe speech. Later, the U.S. released housing-related data and November Richmond federal reserve manufacturing index and Conference Board consumer confidence index. Current estimates, in the United States data expected to be healthy, the dollar continued to see support. Dow futures and Asia stock indexes rose together. But watch out for a possible market correction before European close, around 11 PM tonight. The dollar index and Dow futures are likely to test lower.
This weekend is Thanksgiving holiday; investors need to consider investment institutions may use the holiday positioning, various asset prices may reverse the trend.
Note: * refers to the degree of importance
15:00 Germany Gfk consumer confidence index **
17:05 RBA President David Lowe speaks **
22:00 U.S. FHFA housing price index *
23:00 U.S. New home sales **
23:00 U.S. Richmond federal reserve manufacturing index **
23:00 U.S. CB consumer confidence index **
The next day 05:30 U.S. API crude oil stocks ***
1.1015/1. 1025 resistance
Despite the recent performance of European economic data weak, the ECB expected European economic growth to remain at a low level early next year and monetary policy to maintain negative interest rates, which is bearish for the Euro. If the German economic data recorded growth today, but still not enough to boost the Euro. While the market is focusing on this week's positive U.S. economic report, it is also expected that the U.S. economic conditions report "Beige book" may lead to the U.S. economic growth is still active, which may be in this period the Euro lower. Technically expected to limit Euro’s gain, with the possibility of testing 1.0975 support or below.
British pound to dollar
British retail sales rose in November, and the pound rebounded. But it also expected stronger US economic data, limiting resistance to 1.2905. The market is forecasting that U.S. economic data and the results of the Beige Book report on U.S. economic conditions may limit pound’s gains, and could dip to 1.2850 support if the 1.2905 and 1.2915 resistance breakout fails. The British pound, in particular, has the opportunity to come downward.
Australian dollar to US dollar
The RBA estimates that the outlook for Australia's export trade and the economy is uncertain next year, which is bearish for the Australian dollar. New Zealand today reported strong Q3 retail sales growth, but Australia's economic confidence index continued to fall, the related currency performance is mixed. The New Zealand dollar rebounded slightly against the U.S. dollar, while the Australian dollar fell against the greenback. This afternoon watch RBA President David Lowe speech, before and after the comments, there is an opportunity to affect the Australian dollar fall. Technically, the Australian dollar is currently down to support to 0.6765 or 0.6755. If the RBA speech to express a positive economic outlook could be positive for the Australian and New Zealand dollar.
The China government has reportedly continued to offer a U.S. trade official to Beijing next month to discuss a trade deal. Investors sentiment was going well; the U.S. and Asian stock markets did well, driving the dollar up against the Japanese yen. The USDJPY broke through 108.80 resistance yesterday, while Dow and Nikkei futures continued to rise. If the surge can be extended, the USDJPY is expected to test 109.15, and the next level of significant resistance is 109.40.
U.S. dollar to Canadian dollar
Both OPEC and the Russian government have agreed to plan to discuss a deal to reduce crude production in December. The news helped boost oil prices, indirectly bullish for the Canadian dollar. If Canada makes progress on a trade deal with the United States, it could increase the Canadian dollar. There is no Canada data released today; it’s only the US data affect the Canadian dollar. However, API crude oil stocks will be released tomorrow morning to see if the data can support the Canadian dollar in the short term, making it possible for USDCAD to test support of 1.3255 or 1.3245.
United States crude oil futures
OPEC and the Russian government plan, and initially agreed to cut crude oil production, bullish crude oil prices. The trade talks to further improve, crude oil prices are expected to test $58. API crude oil inventories will be released tomorrow morning and we will see in the short term whether the data can push oil prices even higher. Technically, watch for resistance between $59 and $60 for crude oil futures. If the trend reverses, pay attention to the first target, 56.85 support.
The Fed has no intention of cutting interest rates again, and China is expected to confirm the signing of the first phase of a trade agreement next month in talks with the US. From last week's good data result for the U.S. economy, the market expects data released before this Thursday to remain positive. Dow futures and the dollar rose against gold. Technically, if Dow futures and the dollar index continue to rise, gold could still test $1451 or $1448 support. Further tests of the $1,441 support will have to look at whether U.S. economic data show a sharp increase. Moderate growth could see the gold rebound.
U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
Good U.S. economic data last and forecast this week, US dollar and assets stronger. In addition, China and the United States trade department are actively negotiating to sign the first phase of a trade deals next month and have the opportunity to suspend the imposition of additional tariffs on China imports. Investment sentiment could improve, lifting Dow futures to a record high. Technically, the short-term focus Dow futures 27975 and 27870 support. If the U.S. economy continues to grow, Dow futures can look to the first 28160 and the second 28215 resistance.
7280/ 7400 resistance
6450/ 6250 support
The cryptocurrency demand decline, bearish Bitcoin price. Technical, the bitcoin price now under US7885 support, keeps to looking the trends go down. If any reasons let Dow future fell, it is good news for cryptocurrency, the bitcoin price could rebounds. But now, the bitcoin price could test US6450 or US6250 support. Critical support, it would US5800.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.
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