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ATFX Market Update - 2019.11.18


Personal opinions today:

The Eurozone final annual CPI reading for October was similar to the previous one, limiting the Euro’s gains, U.S. retail sales rose in October as market estimates showed, and the impeachment of the U.S. President in congress affected the sentiment for dollar. The market is watching the FOMC minutes to gauge the fed's December monetary policy direction. Now today, please pay attention to the ECB vice President and the Bank of England chief economist and monetary policy committee member speech, it could affect the performance and trend of all European currency.

[Important financial data and events]
Note: * is the degree of importance

17:00 Vice-president of ECB, Luis DE Guindos speech **
21:20 Philip Lane, Chief economist of the ECB, interviewed **
23:00 NAHB housing market index for November *
To be confirmed Chief economist and member of the BOE monetary policy committee, Andy Haldane speaks **

1.1070/1. 1080 resistance
1.1020/1.1010 support
U.S. retail sales rose, bullish the dollar, bearish for the Euro. Before the close of the weekend, the U.S. President was impeached by the House of Representatives, the market looked at the minutes of the federal reserve board meeting and other factors, and the British parliamentary election poll was positive, which bullish the Euro. But for now, the market is on the sidelines, which could limit the Euro’s gains against the dollar. Preliminary hypothesis 1.1080 represents significant resistance.

British pound to dollar
1.2935/1.2945 resistance
1.2875/1.2865 support
Despite weak economic data in the UK in October, retail sales data in the UK in October were affected, which was bearish for pound. But polls suggest Britain's ruling conservative party could win an election in December, bullish the pound again. In a speech by Andy Haldane, chief economist and member of the bank of England's monetary policy committee today, it would estimate that the current economic outlook could be bearish for pound. Technically, focus on 1.2980 significant resistance. If there is no breakthrough, the trend continues to fall.

Australian dollar to US dollar
0.6825/0.6835 resistance
0.6785/0.6775 support
Market worries about Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate cut tomorrow, affecting investment confidence in the Australian dollar, the bearish sentiment may continue. Before the RBA decision, the Australian dollar was expected to stay low against the U.S. dollar and limit gains in the New Zealand dollar. But also pay attention to the progress of trade negotiations between international trade, consultation effect is not apparent, will be bearish for the Australian dollar.

108.95/109.05 resistance
108.70/108.60 support
International trade negotiations become the key to market confidence, and the relevant remarks will affect investment sentiment. If trade talks run into problems, sentiment heats up, the Dow futures and the Nikkei index futures fell, USDJPY fell. Conversely, if Dow and Nikkei futures rise, the dollar could see significant resistance against the yen at 109.40.

U.S. dollar to Canadian dollar
1.3235/1.3245 resistance
1.3185/1.3175 support
The US-Canada trade deal, which is expected to be signed in December, is likely to strengthen the Canadian dollar. The market expects progress in international trade talks and increased demand for crude oil in the Q4, which could boost the Canadian dollar if crude oil prices rise. It is recommended to keep an eye on the trend of crude oil price and understand the trend of the Canadian dollar.

United States crude oil futures
58.05/58.35 resistance
57.05/56.75 support
International trade talks are expected to make progress as demand for crude oil increased in the Q4. Technical, $57.75 resistance success, the recommendation to wait and see 58.35 resistance. In contrast, if international trade talks run into trouble and crude prices adjust, the initial target could be $56.75.

1472/1474 resistance
1462/1460 support
Fed chairman Powell testified at the Fed monetary policy was leaning toward the sidelines. If the economic data slowdown impact, bullish gold price. If Dow futures go down, gold could rise. If the U.S. and international trade talks succeed and risk aversion cools, Dow futures will rise, and gold will have more of a chance to fall. An initial target of $1460 is supported, with further trials of $1450 or $1448 possible.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
28005/28125 resistance
27830/27750 support
The US President has agreed to resolve the US-Mexico- Canada trade deal by the end of the year. Dow futures rose as the international trade climate improved in support of an agreement between China and the United States next month and hopes for a successful conference call tomorrow. Markets are watching the minutes of the fed's monetary policy meeting and progress in international trade negotiations. Technically, if Dow futures adjust to falling, it could test 27830 or 27750 support.

8980/ 9180 resistance
8350/ 7885support
Technically, the cryptocurrency demand decreased, the trend bearish Bitcoin price. If break US8350 support, look at US7885 support. Without any good news for cryptocurrency, the bitcoin price could keep downtrend.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.

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