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ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Nov 5
Personal opinions today:
In Asian trading today, China Caixin services PMI for October, which is expected to fall slightly, with a slight impact on Asian currencies and stock markets. Most importantly, the good progressing China and US trade deal helped Asian stock markets rise, which was bearish for gold and silver prices. Bullish China RMB and crude oil prices. In addition, the RBA announced the interest rate decision by the market most attention. Market estimates of interest rates unchanged, but the monetary policy orientation and outlook are noted. Entering European trading hours, UK services PMI for October and Eurozone PPI for September. The Euro and pound have been trading at high levels recently as markets have long expected growth. If the data is in line with or below expectations, the extent of the difference in the data will determine the direction of the Euro and pound. Prior to U.S. trading, the market was forecasting a decline in the U.S. trade account for September, but the market was expected to wait to see if September factory orders outpaced expectations for a rise in the final Markit services PMI and ISM non-manufacturing PMI for October, which could support the dollar, the Euro and pound, the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen. Gold and silver extended losses. Before the close of U.S. trading, the release of API crude inventories last week, if now estimated to have fallen, could support a rise in crude prices.
[Important financial data and events]
Note: * is the degree of importance
Winter time begins in the United States
09:45 China's Caixin services PMI **
11:30 RBA announces interest rate decision ***
17:30 UK services PMI **
18:00 Eurozone PPI **
21:30 United States trade account **
22:45 U.S. Markit services PMI final ***
23:00 U.S. ISM non-manufacturing PMI **
The next day 05:30 U.S. API crude oil stocks last week ***
In a speech, the new President of the European central bank Christine Lagarde said monetary policy was appropriate at present and would continue to ease monetary policy. Bearish comments on the euro, such as yesterday's estimate of the EURUSD test support level 1.1125. While the Eurozone producer price index is expected to rise in September, the U.S. trade account for September and the ISM non-manufacturing PMI for October are also expected to rise by a larger margin. Believe Eurozone PPI data, the EURUSD has a downside opportunity, test 1.1085 support.
British pound to US dollar
The market is waiting for the British parliament to debate the issue of Brexit, and for parliamentary elections in December. Without any good news to improve the problem, the pound against the dollar is difficult to test resistance. In addition, the U.S. government stepped up efforts to ease restrictions on Chinese companies, providing any good news on trade deals, and the dollar was supported. As yesterday's analysis estimates consistent, the pound further down support. In addition, the market expected tonight, the US ISM non-manufacturing PMI growth in October, the bigger the increase, the higher the chances of the pound against the dollar to test 1.2825 support.
Australian dollar to US dollar
The reserve bank of Australia set interest rates today, the market worried about the dovish monetary policy and pessimistic economic outlook, the traditional adjustment fell. If the RBA issued a positive outlook, did not indicate that another rate cut expected. With the good progress of China and US trade deal, bullish Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar, the Australian dollar is expected to rise. If AUDUSD breakthrough of 0.6935 resistance is likely to strengthen. The Short-term support bit 0.6860 support, can be used as a reference.
Dollar to Japanese yen
Trade authority in China and the United States signed the first phase of a trade agreement within a month, Dow futures kept upward, the Nikkei future and the USDJPY following the trend. As expected yesterday, USDJPY has tested 108.70 resistance. Futures on the Dow and Nikkei future are expected to rise tonight as the U.S. trade account and ISM non-manufacturing PMI rise. The USDJPY could test 109.00 resistance, depending on the gains in the Dow and Nikkei futures, testing 109.35 or 109.50 resistance. Mainly, the Bank of Japan releases its monetary policy minutes tomorrow morning. In the short term recommend resistance at 109 level, pay attention to adjust.
U.S. dollar to Canadian dollar
Crude oil prices bullish, bullish Canadian dollar. But dovish comments from the Bank of Canada kept the currency in weak. If crude oil prices continue to rise, indirectly bullish Canadian dollar and maintain USDCAD strong. Technically, watching the USDCAD for 1.3125 or 1.3115 support.
United States crude oil futures
The U.S. service sector PMI growth expected and a decline in crude inventories. U.S. crude oil futures offer an opportunity to rise. At the moment, trade tensions between China and the United States release and the extension of OPEC production cuts could bullish U.S. crude futures prices. Technical, $56.80 and $57.00 is the recent rebound range of important resistance, pay attention to the possibility of adjustment.
Without any bad news and good political atmosphere, gold price adjustment, gold prices expected to fall with good forecast in the U.S. trade account and the services sector PMI release today. If the data is in line with or beat expectations, gold could test below $1,504, further testing support at $1,500 or $1,498. As expected yesterday, trade relations between China and the United States have improved and the first phase of a trade agreement is expected to be signed next week. Gold will see a downward, probably break the $1500 support level.
U.S. Dow Jones futures US30
Trade relations between China and the United States have improved, and the first phase of a trade deal is expected to be signed next week. US Corporate has a good outlook, with ratings agencies estimating that low global inflation and the federal reserve keep low interest rate, it would help businesses grow and profit. After the trade war between China and the United States is expected to ease, the United States revised up its economic forecast for the fourth quarter, boosting the investment climate. Technically, Dow futures break through 27220 resistance and are looking up Dow futures to 27560 or 27640 resistance. If the Dow futures adjust, keep an eye on 27310 and 27230 support.
9780/ 9950 resistance
9250 / 9050 support
The FOMC mentions the Fed rate may not further cut further, it will bearish for crypto currencies. Dow and global stock upward with US and China trade deal would signed next week. Technically, it could bearish Bitcoin price. If break US8750 support, then look at US7885 support. Technically, the bitcoin price could test US 9780 or US9950 resistance. If failure break through the resistance, the price could downward.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
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