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ATFX Market Update - 2019.10.30


Personal opinions today:

The FOMC could cut interest rates 25 basis points, it was the most important of several key economic data releases from Europe and the United States today. Following a press conference by Fed chairman Powell speech. If there will indicate whether further rate cuts will be made in the future, or the Fed may anticipate a cycle of rate cuts. Tonight, U.S. ADP payroll and the U.S. Q3 GDP fell to 1.7% or less, there is a good chance that the Fed cut interest rates again after cutting rates to 1.75%, investors are advised to stay focused and plan for the future. It was believe a large Q3 U.S. GDP gap could lead to market volatility, with short-term dollar and Dow futures down and gold, silver and yen rebounding. The Bank of Canada will release its interest rate decision and monetary policy report tonight, and watch the press conference. Interest rate decisions and monetary policy reports and press releases could be bearish for the Canadian dollar.

[Important financial data and events]
Note: * is the degree of importance

08:30 Australia Q3 CPI annualized rate **
16:00 Swiss KOF economic leading indicator *
16:55 German unemployment and unemployment rate ***
17:00 Swiss ZEW investor confidence index *
18:00 Eurozone economic and industrial sentiment **
18:00 Eurozone consumer confidence index final ***
20:15 U.S. ADP payroll***
20:30 U.S. Real Q3 GDP Pre ***
21:00 Germany CPI ***
22:00 Bank of Canada interest rate decision ***
22:30 U.S. EIA crude oil inventory **
23:15 Bank of Canada Press conference ***
The next day 02:00 FOMC interest rate decision ***
The next day 02:30 FOMC Press conference

Today's suggestion:

1.1130/1.1140 resistance
1.1085/1.1075 support
The dollar fell on expectations of weak U.S. economic data, believed to be one of the euro's supports. All the while, the Brexit deal still hasn't been approved by the British parliament, and repeated political wrangling could be bearish for both the pound and the euro. Technically, note that sterling will continue to lead the euro. Due to important data in Europe and the United States today, and pay attention to the FOMC released the interest rate decision and policy statement, Fed chairman Powell held a press conference speech.

British pound to US dollar
1.2880/1.2895 resistance
1.2810/1.2795 support
Brexit vote and approved the general election in December but the market expected bearish pound. Pound has recovered from its low against the dollar, but is expected to make only limited gains, heeding the 1.2895 resistance. The British House of Commons continues to debate and vote on the Brexit deal. If there is news, will affect the trend of pound.

Australian dollar to US dollar
0.6860/0.6870 resistance
0.6815/0.6805 support
Despite today's release of Australia Q3 CPI annualized growth, the Australian dollar. But a trade deal between China and the United States could hit a snag ahead of schedule, potentially bearish the Australian and New Zealand dollars if problems intensify. It is only now that the Fed is expected to announce a cut in interest rates, before this period of bearish US dollar, will be expected to be bullish Australian and New Zealand dollar.

Dollar/Japanese yen
109.05/109.15 resistance
108.50/108.40 support
The market expected The Bank of Japan kept interest rates at negative levels, and may further ease monetary policy to weaken the Japanese yen. In addition, dow Jones industrial average futures held high, and the market forecast that the federal reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points, which is likely to make a cut, the dollar will test 109 against the yen. But limit the gains after testing 109 if the dollar follows the yen higher. Technically, USDJPY continues to follow the stock market. Target 109.05 and 109.15 resistance.

U.S. dollar to Canadian dollar
1.3125/1.3140 resistance
1.3050/1.3035 support
The Bank of Canada rates tonight, the market is expected to remain unchanged, bullish Canadian dollar. If U.S. Q3 GDP falls more than expected and expected the Fed cuts interest rates, it could still bullish the Canadian dollar in the short term. Technically, watch the USDCAD expect to test 1.3050 or 1.3035 support. Otherwise, resistance to 1.3125 or 1.3140.

United States crude oil futures
56.55/56.80 resistance
54.55/54.40 support
US API announced last week crude oil stocks declined, the news has been in the market for nearly two weeks, so adjust. The US Q3 GDP was expected to weak, the Brexit still unresolved, and the China and US trade deal has not been signed in advance. We believe that if the crude oil price rises to the $57 range or near $58, the crude oil price may be in the recent situation and make a deep adjustment. Target $53.

1503/1505 resistance
1485/1483 support
Yesterday here mentioned that the Brexit deadline could be extended and gold prices could fall. But today, U.S. GDP is expected to be weak, the Fed still has a chance to cut interest rates in the future, and a China and US trade deal signed could be pushed back. These adverse factors, could bull the price of gold. If U.S. ADP payrolls and Q3 GDP fall and the federal reserve cuts interest rates more than expected, money could flow into the gold market, allowing gold prices to rise again.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
27125/27220 resistance
26890/26755 support
The market watched the FOMC meeting, it could cut interest rates, supporting Dow futures to stay high. But U.S. economic data released today is expected to be weak, watch Dow futures adjust to test support at 26890 or 26755.

9885/ 10250 resistance
9100 / 8950 support
As US economy slowdown, FOMC would consider cut Fed fund rate. It is supposed bullish for crypto currencies, such as Bitcoin. Technically, if the bitcoin price failed to support at US7885, it would rebound to US9885 or US10250. Keep watching the gold price, catch up the trend in Bitcoin.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.

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