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ATFX Market Update - 2019.07.16


Personal opinions today:

New Zealand CPl growth in the second quarter was in line with expectations. The Australia ANZ consumer confidence index came in below market expectations. Gains in the New Zealand dollar were limited and gains in the Australian dollar also stalled. Today focus on U.K. June unemployment rate and jobless claims, the Eurozone seasonally adjusted trade account for May and the ZEW economic sentiment index for July, were both expected to improve from the previous month, bullish European currencies, special on Euro. But markets were also focused tonight U.S. retail sales and industrial output data for June. The market expected that the U.S. retail sales and industrial output fell in June from a last month that would be bearish for the dollar.

Separately, Bank of England governor Carney and federal reserve chairman Powell spoke tonight. Their speech involves the country's monetary policy and can influence the market. Special attention to Carney speech, impact on GBPUSD. Carney's comments are more likely to affect UK CPI and retail price expectations tomorrow.

[Important financial data and events]

09:30 RBA releases minutes for July
16:30 UK unemployment rate and jobless claims in June
17:00 Eurozone quarterly adjusted trade accounts for May
17:00 Eurozone ZEW economic sentiment index for July
20:00 Bank of England governor jay carney
20:15 Fed governor Paul speaks
20:30 US retail sales and import price index in June
21:15 U.S. industrial output for June
22:00 US business inventory rate for May
22:00 US NAHB housing index for July
Next day 01:00 Federal reserve chairman Powell speaks
Next day 03:30 Fed Evans spoke
Next day 04:30 U.S. API crude inventories change

Today suggestion:

1.1275/1.1290 resistance
1.1245/1.1230 support
US Manufacturing index rose in line with expectations and the euro fell yesterday. Markets focused on the Eurozone seasonally adjusted trade account for May and ZEW economic sentiment for July. More important today as the US retail sales data, market expectations fell from last month. If the Eurozone data as expected, it is likely to be bullish for the euro as U.S. retail sales are expected to fall. Technically, the euro's first resistance is 1.1275, followed by 1.1300.

1.2545/1.2575 resistance
1.2490/1.2460 support
U.K. unemployment rate and jobless claims figures are released today, and June CPI and retail prices are released tomorrow. These data tend to affect the value of the British pound before and after the release of data. The market is still speculating about the data and fears that the Bank of England governor speech this evening will limit GBP gains and further weaken it. Technically, GBPUSD has reached the lower target of 1.2500. It is believed that prices fluctuated today due to conflicting data from the UK and US.

0.7045/0.7060 resistance
0.7015/0.7000 support
Fed chairman Powell said to maintain rate cut expectations, bearish USD. In addition, New Zealand reported the second quarter CPl, in line with the market forecast growth, indirect bullish to the Australian dollar. Looking at U.S. retail sales results today, the Australian dollar is still likely to trade higher against the U.S. dollar ahead of expected data. After the release of U.S. data, pay attention to the trend of the U.S. dollar, the Australian dollar adjusted gains, trend fell. Technically, it is recommended the resistance of 0.7045 and 0.7060. Expect the trend of AUDUSD, continue to influence the trend of the New Zealand dollar. Technically, NZD has test the last month's high of 0.6725, while the next level of resistance is 0.6750. See if it can break through.

107.80/107.65 support
108.25/108.40 resistance
Federal reserve Powell said to maintain rate cut expectations, limit the dollar. China's second-quarter GDP fell yesterday, but the disappointment was offset by faster growth in other internal data, limiting the dollar's fall against the yen. Technically, 107.80 and 107.65 are short-term supports, with resistance of 108.25 and 108.40, and more importantly, resistance of 108.60. Watch for Asian stocks and the dow, watch for safe-haven flows, and assess the dollar against the yen.

1.3035/1.3020 support
1.3075/1.3095 resistance
The monthly rate of existing home sales in Canada fell in June to minus 0.2 percent. Meanwhile, crude oil futures fell and the U.S. dollar rose against the Canadian dollar, back to 1.3055. No Canadian economic data release today, but focus on U.S. retail sales. Finally, it is recommended to pay attention to the trend of crude oil prices, which may affect the Canadian dollar.

Us crude futures
60.25/60.85 resistance
59.00/58.45 support
Crude oil futures fell as the market watched the number of U.S. API crude oil inventories change tomorrow. Technically, there is still an opportunity for crude oil prices to test the resistance of 60.25 or 60.85. In contrast, crude oil futures fell on other factors, with the first reference support at $59.00 and $58.45.

1417/1420 resistance
1407/1404 support
Gold prices were capped after U.S. inflation data rose in June. Earlier this analysis noted that if U.S. inflation data rose more than expected in June, watch for gold prices to fall more sharply. The market is awaiting US retail sales results today and a "beige book" report tomorrow. Gold prices are likely to be volatile today around U.S. retail sales results, so take note and pay attention to risk management.

U.S. Dow Jones futures US30
27425/27515 resistance
27220/27095 support
U.S. inflation rose in June and economic data showed tentative improvement. Trade talks between China and the United States went well, with the Dow future further up slightly. Today focus on U.S. retail sales and tomorrowU.S. economic report called "beige book" . It could update and details about the U.S. economy. The Dow could affected by the U.S. retail sales data and ahead of tomorrow's beige book release, noting the recent correction in high resistance.

11050 / 11450 resistance
9950 / 9750 support
As mentioned couple week ago, the China and U.S. trade tensions cool down. US non-farm payroll over the market expected, the Fed may not cut rate in this month. It is suppose bullish US dollar, bearish bitcoin. Technically, the critical resistance lower to US$12000, seeks the support.
The technical support, the first targeted were US$9750.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.

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