• Add

ATFX Market Update - 2019.07.11


Personal opinions today:
The dollar fell last night after federal reserve chairman Powell speech and presentation that trade tensions could pose downside risks to U.S. markets, the economy and inflation. He added that the U.S. economy remains weak, suggesting that all fed officials are in favor of a rate cut if the economy and inflation slow.
Asian stocks rose today as the Dow rebounded on expectations that the federal reserve could cut interest rates China A50, Nikkei and Hong Kong hang seng index all rose. But interest rate cut expectations rose, the dollar index fell, the dollar fell against other major currencies. European currencies rose and commodity currencies did well. Gold and oil futures rose.
Today's focus is on US inflation data for June and the federal reserve chairman speech at the hearing again. If the monthly U.S. consumer price index rose sharply above market expectations of 0.2 percent in June and edged closer to 1 percent inflation, the dollar could rebound sharply. Gold prices and crude oil prices also have a chance of falling against other currencies. Then Fed chairman Powell made another presentation on the final day of the hearing, listening closely to Powell's presentation of the Fed's monetary policy. In the meantime, there could be make the market volatility.

[Important financial data and events]
14:00 Germany CPI monthly final value for June
14:45 France CPI in June
17:30 Bank of England releases its financial stability report
19:30 European central bank minutes
20:30 US initial jobless claims
20:30 US CPI the monthly rate of June
22:00 Fed chairman Powell testifies at the hearing meeting
23:10 Fed Williams attends seminar and speech
The next day 01:30 Fed governor John Quarles speech

Today suggestion :
1.1275/1.1300 resistance
1.1240/1.1225 support
The dollar fell and European currencies rose yesterday in a speech by federal reserve chairman Powell speech. The euro broke through resistance of 1.1245 and will try resistance of 1.1275/1.1300. However, it depends on the CPI rate of June in Germany and the minutes of the European central bank's monetary policy meeting released today. First of all, the market expected the final monthly CPI in June to be flat. The minutes of the European central bank's monetary policy meeting mainly mentioned the extension of loose monetary policy, which was negative for the euro. The biggest potential boost to the euro is likely to come when the U.S. consumer price index for June came in below market expectations. Fed chairman Powell in the hearing, the last day of the speech again, reiterated the expected rate cut remarks. Conversely, European currencies continue to be bearish. Technically, the key resistance is 1.1275 and 1.1300. Refer to significant support bit 1.1225.

1.2515/1.2530 resistance
1.2480/1.2465 support
Brexit to be delayed by the popularity of conservative party leader Boris Johnson. The market believes that UK economic data is likely to remain weak and difficult to recover. But Fed chairman Powell speech, he said the economy remains fragile and that the fed will cut rates in the future if needed. Comments on the weaker dollar, British pound took the opportunity to rebound. Technically, the British pound is still likely to dip to its low of 1.2425 six months ago. Currently, if British pound would not break through 1.2530 resistance, the trend may be lower. It is worth watching today's us June CPI and Fed chairman Powell speech at the hearing again.

0.6930/0.6910 support
0.6965/0.6985 resistance
In the Fed speech yesterday, the chairman Powell confirmed that the Fed is still considering rate cuts. The dollar fell, indirectly bullish the AUDUSD. In addition, the easing of trade relations between the United States and China and the expected increase of Chinese import from Australia are also factors contributing to the Australian dollar's rise. The US released June CPI today and Fed chairman Powell gave a speech at the hearing again. Technically, it is suggested to pay attention to AUDUSD 0.6930 support and 0.6985 resistance. Expect the trend of AUDUSD, influence the trend of the New Zealand dollar as well.

108.00/107.85 support
108.45/108.60 resistance
The dollar fell and the yen rose yesterday as federal reserve chairman Powell confirmed interest rate cut expectations at a Fed hearing. Today, the US released inflation data CPI for June and Fed chairman Powell's speech at the hearing. Watch the impact of the dollar on the yen. We also need to pay more attention to the global stock market sentiment. Assuming, the dollar could rise against the yen for the first time if the U.S. consumer price index rises higher than expected. Afterwards, listens to the federal reserve chairman Powell to make a speech in the hearing, grasps the information again, judges the dollar trends.

1.3055/1.3035 support
1.3115/1.3135 resistance
Yesterday, the Bank of Canada remains the interest rates unchanged, once bearish Canadian dollar. However, the Fed chairman said there is still a chance for the Fed to cut interest rates, while there is an interest rate upward in Canada. The USDCAD back to 1.3055 support. If Fed chairman Powell confirms further interest rate cuts by the end of this month. Also, if crude oil prices rose, it would strengthen the Canadian dollar.

US crude oil futures
60.85/61.30 resistance
59.70/58.85 support
U.S. API crude oil inventory reduction, the gulf of Mexico storm, crude oil production decreased, bullish crude oil prices. Federal reserve chairman colin Powell's speech further confirmed that the federal reserve continues to consider interest rate cuts, oil prices rose further. Technically, at present 59.30 important resistance breakthrough, look up 60.85 and 61.30 resistance. Conversely, other factors, such as a lull in us inflation as the gulf of Mexico storm subsides, could push oil futures lower, with the first reference support at $59.70 and $58.85.

1427/1430 resistance
1417/1414 support
Gold prices could fall further on expectations that U.S. inflation data rose in June. If U.S. inflation data rose higher than expected, watch gold's fall widen. Currently, short term gold price technical support at 1417 and 1414. Fed chairman Powell today before and after the speech, the gold prices may be volatile, advised attention, and well prepare any risk management.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
26955/27005 resistance
26855/26745 support
U.S. inflation data for June were expected to rise, the Dow future was bullish, and the sentiment for U.S. stocks improved slightly. In addition, the Fed chairman said interest rate cuts are still being considered. US government improving trade relations with China have boosted stocks. Current technical estimate, assuming the Dow at 27005 as a resistance and 26745 as a support. Attention to the Fed chairman Powell's speech at hearing today, during the time the stock market may be volatile.

12350 / 12950 resistance
11450 / 11050 support
China and U.S. trade tensions cool down. US non-farm payroll over the market expected, the Fed may not cut rate in this month. It is suppose bullish US dollar, bearish bitcoin. Probably, the US-Iran tensions may affected the safe heavens fund hedging, part of fund transfer to crypto currencies. But seems not last longer, the hedges position would close when the tensions cool down. Technically, found the bitcoin price at US13000 which is critical resistance.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by ATFX, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial
Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China

Legal: ATFX is a trading name of AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.

ATFX Review

!"#$%&'()*+,-./0123456789:;<=>?@ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ[\]^_`abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz{|} !"#$%&'()*+,-./0123456789:;<=>?@ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ[\]^_`abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz{|}