ATFX Market Update - 2019.05.03

Personal opinions today

On Wednesday, U.S. ADP reported 275,000 jobs, over market expectations, the market expected the non farm payrolls data also over expectation 185,000 jobs. The only thing that matters is whether average wages. If the result over market expectations, the dollar strengthened. But now, the dollar rose against major currencies, and gold prices fell and hit $1,266 yesterday. The dollar is expected to remain strong into early next week if the non farm payroll and average wages reports just meet the numbers. Instead, the dollar's strength will end tonight, with the dollar likely to fall against major currencies and gold having a chance to rally.

European trading session attention today, the Eurozone and U.K. released important data. The eurozone CPI and the U.K. services PMI are important, but if the data only comes in line with expectations, Euro and GBP currencies could test lows again ahead of the U.S. non farm payrolls.

[Important financial data and events to watch]
13:45 Swiss consumer confidence index in April
14:30 Swiss CPI in April
16:30 UK services PMI in April
17:00 Eurozone PPI monthly rate in March
17:00 Eurozone CPI annual rate in April
20:30 U.S. non farm payrolls in April
20:30 U.S. unemployment rate and average wages in April
21:45 U.S. Markit services PMI in April
22:00 U.S. ISM non-manufacturing PMI for April
22:15 U.S.Fed's Evans speech
23:30 U.S.Federal vice chairman speech
The next day 01:45 U.S.Federal chairman Williams speech
The next day 03:00 U.S.Federal governor bowman speech

Today's suggestion:

EURUSD
1.1190/1.1215 resistance
1.1155/1.1140 support
U.S. private payrolls rose more than expected, the Federal reserve kept interest rate hikes in future, the dollar stronger, and the euro fell after hitting a record high. The euro's gains were also limited by the market's wait for U.S. non-farm payrolls data. Technically, EURUSD resistance is 1.1190 and 1.1215, and support refer to 1.1155 and 1.1140. The EURUSD could test $1.1110 if U.S. job data is strong and average wages rise higher than expected.

GBPUSD
1.3055/1.3075 resistance
1.2995/1.2980 support
The Bank of England monetary policy reiterated its outlook for a slowing economy and interest rates unchanged, which was bearish for GBP. In addition, the U.S. economy reported non farm payrolls, market expectations for growth, a strong dollar and a weaker GBP. Technically, the GBP against the dollar reference important resistance level of 1.3100. The reference resistance in short term, drops to 1.3055 and 1.3075. The GBP could test support for 1.2995 or 1.2980 if U.S. job data is strong and average wages rise higher than expected.

AUDUSD
0.6985/0.6970 support
0.7030/0.7045 resistance
The U.S. dollar was stronger before the release the U.S. non farm payrolls ahead of a better-than-expected ADP. But trade talks between China and the United States are expected to final next week, which could bullish AUD. Technically, AUDUSD are expected to test 0.6985 and 0.6970 support. If AUDUSD rebound, may indirectly lead NZDUSD rise. NZDUSD support refer to 0.6605 or 0.6585.

USDJPY
111.85/112.00 resistance
111.35/111.20 support
The Dow Jones industrial average fell, and the USDJPY once tried to support 111.35, but the rebound was only weak, only 111.55. But the predicted a strong U.S. jobs report today, along with a rise in the Dow, could boost USDJPY rally. The technical support are 111.35 and 111.20, while the upper resistance levels are 111.85 and 112.00. The USDJPY trend could be followed by Dow.

USDCAD
1.3460/1.3475 resistance
1.3405/1.3375 support
Crude oil prices fell, bearish the Canadian dollar. In addition, the dollar's strength on expectations of a better-than-expected U.S. non farm payrolls report was also negative for the Canadian dollar. Technical trend, the U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar to initially destroy a wave, back to the previous high and resistance level of 1.3475. The dollar could test $1.3405 against the Canadian dollar if U.S. jobs data is only in line with expectations and wages are not higher than expected today. If crude oil prices rebound, bullish for the Canadian dollar. The dollar could test 1.33 against the Canadian dollar.

U.S. crude futures USOIL
60.80/59.85 support
62.65/63.55 resistance
Yesterday, API and ElA reported sharp increases in crude inventories, crude oil prices lower. In addition, the fed has maintained its chances of raising interest rates in the future, which is bearish for crude oil prices. Technically, crude oil prices fell below 62.25 support and extended to adjusted wave of 23.6 percent, having seen $60.80. It is believed that if the U.S. job data is strong and wage growth is better than expected, crude oil prices may consolidate and then be boosted by good news from the China and U.S. trade talks next week.

XAUUSD
1278/1282 resistance
1266/1262 support
The U.S. economy seems continues to grow, after the private sector jobs over market expectations. In addition, the Fed said it was not considering a rate cut, but was holding its to raise rates, which was bullish for the U.S. dollar but bearish for gold, its cause the gold price fell to $1,266 yesterday. Gold prices fell on the back of strong U.S. jobs data and a positive dollar. Gold prices could rebound if non farm payrolls below 230,000 and wage growth under the market expectations. Technical resistance targets are $1,278 and $1,282. If the U.S. dollar continues to strengthen, gold prices are likely to test support for 1266 and 1262.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
26140/26055 support
26425/26530 resistance
The Dow Jones industrial average fell on expectations that the federal reserve will keep raising interest rates. At the same time, the decline in the price of crude oil, the relevant industry stocks fell, decline in the Dow. If the U.S. jobs report over the market expected today and hopes that China and U.S. trade talks could cancel the import tariffs between China and U.S., which could boost the investment climate. Technically, looking the Dow support at 26140 and 26055 and resistance at 26425 and 26530.

BTCUSD:
5650 / 5800 resistance
5200 / 5070 support
The FOMC keeps the interest rates unchanged, the bitcoin price could up. Now the market waiting for the US non-farm payroll results. If good number, positive bitcoin. Technically the bitcoin price is expected testing US5500, test lower support 5200 or 5070 support.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.

ATFX Review