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ATFX Market Update - 2019.04.16


Personal opinions today

Investors will be watching tomorrow the China first-quarter GDP report. The market estimates that China's economy continued to slow in the first quarter as a result of the trade war between the United States and China that began last year. Financial and property markets in the Spring Festival holiday has slowed. The production in the manufacturing and service sectors as well. Growth is expected to slow to 6.3 percent in the first quarter, China's A50 index fell yesterday. Today's UK job data, unemployment rate and jobless claims are closely watched by the market, which directly affects the expected UK CPI outlook and the trend of the pound. In addition, other essential data from the eurozone and Germany which is ZEW economic sentiment index for April can be used to look ahead to the euro zone's March CPl inflation data announced tomorrow. It is recommended to note that the U.S. industrial index and housing price index today, these are not essential data but good for predicting the U.S. retail sales data on Thursday, and there will be opportunities to influence the trend of the U.S. dollar and the trend of the the the global stock market. It even affects commodity markets, such as gold and crude oil prices.

[Important data and events to watch]
09:30 minutes of the RBA's monetary policy meeting for April
16:30 UK unemployment rate and jobless claims for March
17:00 German and eurozone ZEW economic sentiment index for April
21:15 The monthly rate of us industrial output in March
22:00 NAHB U.S. housing market index for April
Next day 04:30 U.S. API crude stocks for the week ending April 12

Today's suggestion :

1.1320/1.1340 resistance
1.1275/1.1255 support
Markets are watching today as the euro zone and Germany release ZEW economic sentiment index and tomorrow the euro zone releases its March CPl that inflation data. Technically, the euro still hasn't broken through the 1.1320 resistance, and the euro has a chance to adjust, with targets in support of 1.1275 and 1.1255. If the euro extends its gains against the dollar, it could test resistance at $1.1386 or $1.14.

1.3065/1.3050 support
1.3125/1.3140 resistance
Investors are waiting for UK jobs data and inflation data to assess the retail sales figures announced on Thursday. Recommend keeping an eye on the UK unemployment rate and inflation data over the next two days as a critical result of Thursday's expected retail sales data. The GBP could test resistance to the dollar at $1.3200 if each figure beats forecasts. GBP, on the other hand, tested below $1.3065 or below.

0.7135/0.7120 support
0.7170/0.7185 resistance
The Reserve bank of Australia (RBA) released minutes of its April monetary policy meeting on concerns that the statement If a change in the central bank's pessimistic view of the economy and show renewed confidence in the future. That could boost the Australian dollar Technically, the AUDUSD held to support at 0.7135 and still had a chance to test resistance at 0.7190 or 0.7205. The AUD could fall against the U.S. dollar if the RBA publishes a bearish stance on the minutes of its April monetary policy meeting, with the first reference below supporting 0.7135.

111.80/111.65 support
112.15/112.30 resistance
US economic data beat expectations, good news from Sino-US trade talks, strong Dow and Nikkei indexes, rising risk appetite, negative yen, USDJPY rising. The dollar is currently subject to short-term technical resistance at 112.15 and 112.30 yen. The dollar has a chance to test support at 111.65 or 111.35 against the yen in the event of adverse comments from the Fed speech or the U.S. President speech affected.

1.3400/1.3425 resistance
1.3345/1.3330 support
Crude oil prices continued their downward trend, having tested $63, which affected the Canadian dollar. Also, the Canadian dollar fell last night after a central bank survey showed business confidence was weakening and investment sentiment cooling. In the short term, the U.S. dollar fell against the Canadian dollar, weighed down by crude oil prices and confidence in the Canadian economy, and expectations that Canadian retail sales could underperform on Thursday. Technically, the USDCAD reference resistance is 1.3400 and 1.3425, while support is 1.3345 and 1.3330.

U.S. crude futures USOIL
63.85/64.05 resistance
63.25/62.80 support
Crude prices fell below $64 last week after news emerged that Opec and other oil-production countries had changed their stance on production cuts and planned to discuss increasing production at June meeting. Technically, the price of crude oil was adjusted to 63.2, with the lower support level reference at $62.80. If OPEC and other members continue to express their intention to increase production at the June meeting of the organisation of the OPEC, crude oil prices will have a chance to try the downward trend after 62.80.

1285/1281 support
1292/1296 resistance
Gold prices continued to fall from their highs as safe-haven funds flowed out of the market on progress in trade talks between China and the United States and as the UK pushed back the date of its departure from the European Union. In addition, gold prices continued to move lower on expectations of a stronger U.S. economy and a rise in the Dow. Technically, the gold price trend at the first target 1285 and 1281 support. In contrast, if gold prices rebound, the reference resistance target of 1292 and 1296 respectively.

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
26495/26600 resistance
26085/26015 support
The good news from the Sino-US trade talks continued to push for the investment climate in the market, with the Dow rising. But expectations for a slowdown ahead of China's first-quarter GDP report on Wednesday hurt stocks and limited gains. If the Dow trend appears to downward, can refer to 26085 or 26015 support.

5050 / 5200 resistance
4850 / 4725 support
The IMF expected a slowdown in global economic growth, the bitcoin price strengthened. The market is waiting for the China GDP in the first quarter. If at the end the figure is better than 6.3% expectations, the bitcoin price is expected below US5200; it could be tested US4725.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by ATFX, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial
Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China

Legal: ATFX is a trading name of AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.

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