Yesterday the GBP fell throughout the market and forced the euro bulls to drop to 1.0819. The UK industrial manufacturing index fell to a three year low. Other key currencies followed the pound downwards. After trading closed in Europe, the euro/dollar returned to the LB at 1.0877.
When Chinese balance of trade data came out in the morning and the stock indices switched into the green, the euro/dollar renewed its minimum at 1.0810.
Main news of the day (EET):
- 12:00, Eurozone industrial manufacturing data for November;
- 17:00, US level of labour market vacancies and work force turnover for November;
- 17:30, US Ministry for Energy’s oil reserve report;
- 21:00, Fed Beige Book.
All I see for the end of today is a flat. In the first half of the day I expect to see the rate return to 1.0877 and then a sideways until Thursday. There is no important news planned for the euro. The oil reserve report could be a driver for the Canadian and this could put pressure on other currencies.
- Intraday target maximum: 1.0877 (current Asian), minimum: 1.0810 (current Asian), close: 1.0845;
- Intraday volatility for last 10 weeks: 100 points (4 figures).
The euro stood at 1.0828 at 6:46 EET. Bull divergence has formed on the AO indicator. The stochastic has flipped downside up. The 1.0800 level is a decent support and the euro/pound cross could lend a hand too. Since the calendar is empty, my review is just for the European session.
Weak industrial manufacturing data from the UK has changed the trajectory for the cross. The euro/pound has lifted to 0.7547. Since the Chinese indices are trading up today, the euro/pound has corrected to 0.7469. I’ve come up with two separate scenarios for Wednesday. The first is for a growth with the possible formation of a triangle. Since the growth of the stock indices and the strengthening of the yuan is weak, a fall could resume at any moment. The second scenario is for the formation of a double top.
The euro/dollar has dropped to 1.0810 but didn’t close below 1.0802. There are risks we could head back to 1.0877 from the daily LB.
The bears have returned the rate to 1.0810, but the intraday pattern for the past two days has a bullish twang to it. The situation remains unclear on the weekly.
Vladislav Antonov, Alpari analyst