All is for the Best in the Best of All Possible Worlds…

EUR/USD
The pair is trading sideways in expectation of the NFP. On the one hand, in September the economy corrected because of the weather, which raises the question whether the consensus forecast will be beaten. On the other hand, ADP data show a 135,000 increase in the number of employed. And, although, as many traders now understand, this is clearly not an indicator, the bulls naturally want to hope for the best, so for now they are not dumping dollars out of their accounts. There is another factor – remarks by the heads of the Fed’s FOMC, in particular voting members Powell, Kaplan, and Dudley.
Technically, there was a breakthrough of the 9-day EMA on the weekly, mid-term charts, but the support at 1.1700 – 1.1730 remains untouched. A breakthrough down amid the dollar bulls’ optimism might make the euro fall by at least 100 points and lead to testing of the more reliable 21-day EMA.



USD/RUB
We don’t think that there will be a breakthrough of the support for the ascending price channel. Russia’s CPI came out yesterday, indicating a fall in demand inflation to 3%, which confirms the Bank of Russia’s predictions of a decline in inflationary pressure. At the last Bank of Russia conference Elvira Nabiullina spoke of the need to track the trend in the indicator to decide later on easing monetary measures. She said that the Central Bank is not worried so much about the numerical value as about the possibility that inflation will remain in this trend in the long term. It is quite possible that there will be a further decrease in the discount rate in the next 2-3 years. The growth target for dollar bulls might be 58.5, which makes it possible to open longs with short stop orders a little below the support level.

Nikolai Dudchenko, exclusively for Olymp Trade

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