So, starting with Monday the 24th. The key event of the day comes at 8:30 in the morning with the release of German manufacturing PMI data for March.
Economic sentiment among Germany’s purchasing managers has improved steadily since the pessimism of 12 months ago, and another strong posting this month should generate short-term CALL opportunities on the DAX index and the euro-dollar.
However, Z.E.W. data released last Tuesday showed a sharp decline in economic sentiment in the German private sector. These two releases have a distinct historical correlation, so a sub-par number on Monday is still on the cards.
When trading this event always keep in mind the fact that this data is released to Thompson Reuters subscribers a full two minutes before the scheduled time, so any significant price action during these crucial 120 seconds can offer clues as to the actual number, and of course, provide an opportunity for early entry into trades on the DAX and Euro-dollar.
On to Tuesday now. Last week, U.S. president Barrack Obama called an emergency meeting of G7 member countries to address Russia’s recent activity in the Crimea. On the agenda? Nothing less than Russia’s continued status as a G7 member. Binary options traders should be ready for sustained volatility on the currency markets throughout the day, with particular attention paid, of course, to the ruble.
Also on Tuesday we have U.S. new home sales data, set for release at 2pm. Last week’s below-par existing home sales figure of 4.6 million undermined one of the Fed’s key metrics for tapering its asset purchasing program, and further evidence of a listless U.S. housing market is likely to dampen demand for the greenback, prompting another Euro-dollar uptick.
On Wednesday the main event comes late in the day with New Zealand Trade Balance data coming out of Wellington at 9:45 pm. Last week we saw a huge decrease in New Zealand’s current account deficit, explained by the country’s booming exports to China. This should translate into a healthy trade surplus on Wednesday, and lead to bullish movement on the kiwi dollar.
At 9:30 on Thursday morning sterling traders should pay close attention U.K. retail sales data for February. Despite recent signs of growth in the U.K. economy, retail sales figures in February have tended to disappoint due to a decline in street-level spending in the months following the holiday season.
And so to Friday when we stay in London for our last tradable event of the week: At 9:30 am it’s U.K. current account figures for Q4 2013. After four consecutive below-forecast postings, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will be looking for a reduction in the current account deficit, now in the red to the tune of 20.7 billion. Whether he gets the news he is seeking or not, forecasted and actual numbers for the U.K. current account are rarely in agreement and almost invariably lead to opportunities on the sterling crosses.
Lauren Carmouche
Investment Analyst
Banc de Binary.