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Central Banks Shift To Dovish Forward Guidance


Following the FOMC meeting on Wednesday and the surprise comments from the ECB’s Draghi on cutting rates further, many other central banks have shifted course.

The latest is the Bank of Japan. Overshadowed by other major themes, the Bank of Japan left interest rates unchanged. BoJ Governor Kuroda said that the central bank was ready to increase stimulus as global outlook turns murky.

Euro Gains on a Weak USD

As the US dollar weakened following the FOMC meeting, the common currency posted strong gains on the day. Economic data from the eurozone was sparse. The reversal in the EURUSD came after both the ECB and the Fed came out with dovish forward guidance. Flash manufacturing PMI reports from the eurozoneare due later today.

EURUSD Likely to Consolidate Near Current Highs

The single currency managed to reverse the losses from earlier this week. Price posted strong gains as it broke past the 1.1250 level. At the time of writing, the EURUSD is trading near the 1.1300 handle. We expect price action to remain anchored around this level in the near term. The 4-hour chart signals a hidden bearish divergence which could see price dipping to 1.1250 to establish support.

Sterling Muted to BoE

Following weeks of voting, Boris Johnson is set to become the next Prime minister of the United Kingdom. Having won the UK conservative party leadership vote, Johnson is set to replace PM May who resigned after failing to deliver a Brexit deal. Elsewhere, the BoE held its monetary policy meeting but left the interest rates unchanged. The sterling was unmoved on the outcome of the meeting.

GBPUSD Could Continue Higher

The GBPUSD currency pair continued to maintain its gains over the week. Price is testing the resistance level of 1.2716 at the time of writing. A breakout above this level is required to keep the momentum going. The upside bias comes on the bullish divergence seen on the daily chart. A close above 1.2716 could confirm this view as GBPUSD will be targeting 1.2895 next.

Gold Maintains the Upside Momentum

The precious metal continued to surge higher on the day as price tested $1400 an oz earlier this morning. The gains come as central banks shift to dovish forward guidance across the globe. Meanwhile, rising tensions between Washington and Tehran also add to the global concerns of a potential fallout into a war.

XAUUSD Could Consolidate Near Highs

Following a week of strong gains, gold could pause its gains in the short term. After this morning’s spike to 1400.00, which is a key psychological level, gold prices could see a pullback. In the short term, support could be seen at 1390.25. However, for this pullback to occur, the precious metal will need to signal a bearish reversal pattern near the current highs.

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Source: https://www.orbex.com/blog/en/2019/06/central-banks-shift-to-dovish-forward-guidance
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