ATFX Market Outlook | November 6th, 2026
Tech Stocks Lead US Selloff Ahead of Payrolls
Key Takeaways
AI-related shares led the worst US equity session since 2020 as investors feared tighter oversight of AI and data-center buildout following the midterm results; Truist called it a “buyers’ strike in tech.” The selloff is spreading beyond Wall Street: Korean chipmakers fell about 10% before the open, the Kospi dropped below 5,000, CoreWeave’s five-year credit default swap widened to a record, and the VIX jumped about 69% to near 28. Whether the damage stays in technology depends on tonight’s jobs data and how Asian markets trade.
Haven demand is rising. Gold is on course for its biggest weekly gain since August, while the Yen and government bonds are rallying. Global tightening also continues: the Bank of England raised Bank Rate to 4% for the first time in more than three years, and Japan’s fastest wage growth since 1997 keeps a December BoJ hike in play. CME FedWatch shows about a 66% chance of a Fed hike in December, down from 79.9% a week earlier.
Today’s Focus
US October nonfarm payrolls at 21:30 GMT+8 are the main event. Payroll growth is forecast at 65,000 (previous 29,000), with unemployment at 4.2% and average hourly earnings up 0.3% m/m (previous 0.1%). Canadian unemployment (forecast 6.5%) is released at the same time, and the preliminary University of Michigan sentiment index follows at 23:00 (forecast 48).
Earlier, Germany’s industrial production (forecast 0% vs. 2% previous) is due at 15:00, and euro area retail sales (forecast -0.1% vs. 0.1%) at 18:00. Fed speakers Williams, Musalem, and Bowman; ECB’s Lane at 17:30; and BoJ Governor Ueda at 00:00 on Saturday may shape rate expectations. Next week brings China CPI and PPI on Monday, then US CPI and the weekly ADP employment report on Tuesday.
Global Market Review
Thursday: the Dow fell 3.44% to 51,523; the S&P 500 lost 4.36% to 7,353; and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 5.52% to 24,315, its largest decline in 19 months. All 11 S&P 500 sectors declined, led by technology, and about $3 trillion in S&P 500 value was erased.
The Dollar Index rose 0.10% to 101.59. Treasury yields fell as investors sought safety: the 2-year yield dropped 12.2 basis points to 4.459%, and the 10-year declined 5.3 basis points to 4.835%.
Brent rose 4.66% to $99.03, and WTI gained 3.35% to $91.07, rebounding from Wednesday’s more than 8% decline. Gold rose 0.57% to $4,088.39, while Bitcoin fell about 6% to roughly $75,700. These are closing references from the supplied snapshot; the charts show later prices, and settlement quotes can differ by source.
Economic Calendar
November 6 (GMT+8)
15:00 Germany Industrial Production SEP **
18:00 Euro Area Retail Sales SEP **
21:30 Canada Unemployment Rate OCT ***
21:30 US Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings OCT ***
23:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Preliminary NOV ***
November 9–13 (GMT+8)
Mon: 09:30 China October CPI and PPI
Tue: 07:50 Bank of Japan October Summary of Opinions; US ADP Weekly Employment; 21:30 US October CPI
Wed: Germany October CPI (Final); OPEC Monthly Report; US Veterans Day
Thu: 15:00 UK Q3 GDP (First Estimate); 21:30 US Initial Jobless Claims; 23:00 US October Existing Home Sales
Fri: 01:00 US EIA Crude Oil Inventories; Eurozone Q3 GDP (Second Flash Estimate); 21:30 US October PPI
Market Analysis
EUR/USD
Resistance: 1.1270/1.1289
Support: 1.1168/1.1144
Analyst’s View: EUR/USD held near 1.1217 as a flat Dollar and the ECB policy debate offset tech-led risk aversion. Euro area October inflation at 4% and September producer prices up 11.1% y/y keep a December hike on the table: Lagarde said data before then will decide, and Nagel and Panetta said a move may be needed. ECB’s Lane and retail sales are due today.
EUR/USD is near 1.1217 after being rejected at 1.1270, where the upper channel line meets the 1.0 Fibonacci level. It is hovering around the dashed channel midline. A break above 1.1270 would bring 1.1289 into focus, while a loss of 1.1207 would expose the 1.1168–1.1144 support zone.
Bias: Neutral
GBP/USD
Resistance: 1.3493/1.3511
Support: 1.3398/1.3381
Analyst’s View: The BoE raised Bank Rate to 4%, its first hike in more than three years, and warned that inflation will approach 5% next year. Governor Bailey said another hike is “more likely than not” if recent high energy costs return, and markets price in about a 1-in-2 chance of a December move. The Pound has lost its post-decision bounce and is heading for its first loss in seven sessions.
GBP/USD is near 1.3449 after stalling at 1.3493 and the upper channel line near 1.3500, its highest since mid-September. Price is testing the dashed channel midline around 1.3437–1.3454; a break above 1.3493/1.3511 would restore momentum, while a loss of 1.3437 would put the 1.3398–1.3381 support zone in focus.
Bias: Neutral
USD/JPY
Resistance: 158.34/158.55
Support: 157.23/156.96
Analyst’s View: The Yen gained as the minutes of the BoJ’s October 30 meeting, held at 1.25% with one dissent in favor of 1.5%, were read as a case for a December hike. September nominal wages rose 4.6% y/y, the fastest since January 1997, and real wages rose 2.2%. Haven flows and lower US yields provided support; Governor Ueda speaks at 00:00 on Saturday.
USD/JPY is near 157.85, testing the 0.5 level (157.86) after a rejection below 158.34–158.55 and a spike low at 157.23. The pair has held the 156–159 range since late September; a recovery above 158.34/158.55 would support stabilization, while a break below 157.23/156.96 would extend the decline.
Bias: Neutral to Cautiously Bearish
US Crude Oil Futures (USOIL)
Resistance: 93.79/95.93
Support: 86.87/84.77
Analyst’s View: Oil rebounded after falling more than 8% on Wednesday, on hopes that the midterm results would increase pressure to end the Iran war. Supply risks remain high: at least five vessels have been hit since Sunday, and the IRGC said two tankers caught fire near Hormuz. Eurasia Group puts the odds of renewed US strikes at 60% and says escalation could push Brent to $110–125, yet crude is still on track for its biggest weekly loss since April.
USOIL is near $91.10 after bouncing off the $86.87 support level and is testing the 0.736 level ($91.65) and the descending channel's dashed midline. A break above $91.65 would open the $93.79–$95.93 resistance zone, while a loss of $86.87 would expose $84.77.
Bias: Neutral
Spot Gold and Spot Silver
Spot Gold Resistance: 4132/4164
Spot Gold Support: 4026/4001
Spot Silver Resistance: 53.05/53.74
Spot Silver Support: 50.93/50.06
Analyst’s View: Gold is set for its biggest weekly gain since August, driven by haven demand amid the tech route, lower Treasury yields, and lower oil, with the 10-year yield near 4.83%. Cleveland Fed’s Hammack said rates must remain restrictive, and Richmond Fed’s Barkin favors a gradual approach to further hikes, so tonight’s payrolls could swing yields and gold.
Gold is near $4,068 after being rejected at the upper channel line near $4,147 and slipping below the channel midline and the $4,082 level. A recovery above $4,082 would resume the rebound toward $4,132–$4,164, while a loss of $4,051 would put $4,026–$4,001, the channel base, in focus.
Silver is near $51.87 after failing at the 0.736 level ($53.05) and is hovering around the 0.5 level ($51.64). A break above $53.05/$53.74 would resume the recovery, while a loss of $50.93 would expose $50.06.
Bias: Gold Neutral; Silver Neutral to Cautiously Bearish
Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30)
Resistance: 51839/52210
Support: 50638/50274
Analyst’s View: Dow fell 3.44%, with 29 of its 30 members declining. Goldman Sachs (about -6%) and Caterpillar accounted for about a third of the points lost. Hedging costs against S&P 500 swings rose the most since April 2025 as the VIX rose to about 28.2. Tonight’s payrolls will test whether lower yields can cushion further selling.
DJIA is near 51,212 after reversing from the 53,781 high on a long bearish candle that erased the post-election surge. It trades below the 0.736 level (51,468) as it approaches 51,104. A recovery above 51,839/52,210 would ease pressure, while a loss of 50,638 would expose 50,274.
Bias: Cautiously Bearish
Nasdaq 100 Index (NAS100)
Resistance: 27132/27440
Support: 26133/25830
Analyst’s View: AI-linked shares drove the route: AMD fell 17%, Nvidia more than 9%, Microsoft 3.6%, and Meta 4%. The index lost about $2.5 trillion. UBS estimates that about 30% of planned 2028 US data-center capacity is at risk due to construction pauses, and Microsoft is tightening oversight of some Nebius, IREN, and Nscale projects. Analysts expect more selling to begin in Asia today.
NAS100 is near 26,787 after a breakdown below the descending channel and a bounce from its 26,130 low, now trading just under the 1.736 level (26,823). A recovery above 27,132/27,440 would ease pressure, while a loss of 26,133 would expose 25,830.
Bias: Cautiously Bearish
Bitcoin (BTC)
Resistance: 77087/77732
Support: 74354/73534
Analyst’s View: Bitcoin fell 6.2% to about $75,700, and Ether 8.5%, as the tech selloff hit risk appetite and investors weighed the prospect of closer congressional scrutiny of crypto. Riot Platforms’ sale of 10,599 BTC in the September quarter to fund an AI pivot added pressure.
BTC is near $76,048 after a sharp reversal from $81,110 to $75,644, below the dashed channel midline. A recovery above 77,087/77,732 would ease pressure, while a loss of $75,644 would expose 74,354/73,534.
Bias: Cautiously Bearish Disclaimer:
This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.
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