ATFX Market Outlook | November 5th, 2026
Stocks and Gold Rise as Oil Falls After the Midterms
Key Takeaways
Democrats won both chambers of the next Congress; Trump remains President. Major laws will require more compromise, which investors hope will limit policy surprises and spending increases. Stocks rallied, although divided government can also make budget agreements harder to reach.
Lower yields and a softer Dollar supported gold, while cheaper oil eased inflation worries and helped stocks. The oil selloff reflects hopes for Iran diplomacy, though no agreement has been reached. Gains in large AI companies also masked weakness in chipmakers and data-center operators.
Today’s Focus
The BoE decision at 20:00 GMT+8 is the main policy event, with a 25-basis-point hike to 4.00% widely expected. The vote split and guidance could matter more than the increase itself. Norges Bank announces its decision at 17:00; euro area producer prices follow at 18:00.
US jobless claims, productivity and unit labor costs arrive at 21:30 GMT+8. They will test hiring and inflation pressures ahead of Friday’s October payrolls report. Payroll growth is forecast at 65,000, with unemployment at 4.2%; wages and revisions also matter.
Global Market Review
Wednesday: the Dow rose 3.03% to 53,356.12; the S&P 500 gained 1.58% to 7,688.62; and the Nasdaq Composite added 1.44% to 25,736.51. The rally broadened beyond AI shares as the election result reduced immediate political uncertainty.
The supplied closing snapshot put the Dollar Index at 101.53, down 0.36%. The 2-year Treasury yield fell 5.0 basis points to 4.581%, and the 10-year declined 7.4 basis points to 4.888%. These are closing references, rather than live morning quotes.
In the same snapshot, Brent fell 8.72% to $94.58 and WTI lost 8.39% to $88.03. Gold rose 3.49% to $4,065.13. Futures settlements and other news quotes can differ by contract and timing; the supplied charts show later prices.
Economic Calendar November 5 (GMT+8)
07:50 Japan BoJ September Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes **
08:30 Japan Services and Composite PMI Final OCT **
15:00 Germany Factory Orders SEP **
17:00 Norway Norges Bank Rate Decision ***
18:00 Euro Area PPI SEP ***
20:00 UK BoE Rate Decision, Meeting Minutes and Monetary Policy Report ***
21:30 US Initial Jobless Claims OCT/31 **; Q3 Productivity and Unit Labor Costs **
23:00 ECB President Lagarde Speech **
November 6 (GMT+8)
15:00 Germany Industrial Production SEP **
18:00 Euro Area Retail Sales SEP **
21:30 US Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings OCT ***
23:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Preliminary NOV ***
Market Analysis
EUR/USD
Resistance: 1.1269/1.1288
Support: 1.1226/1.1206
Analyst’s View: A weaker Dollar and lower US yields support the Euro. Producer prices and Lagarde’s remarks will test inflation risks. Cheaper energy could ease price pressure if oil remains lower, but a single session’s decline does not establish that trend.
EUR/USD is near 1.1248 after rebounding from the 1.1226 support area. It has recovered to 1.1245 within a rising channel but needs to clear 1.1269 to extend the advance toward 1.1288. Above that zone, the next chart level is 1.1308. Holding the marked support zone would preserve the recent recovery, while a sustained break below it would put the rising channel under pressure.
Bias: Neutral to Cautiously Bullish
GBP/USD
Resistance: 1.3511/1.3529
Support: 1.3455/1.3437
Analyst’s View: A BoE hike from 3.75% to 4.00% is widely expected, so Sterling may respond more to the vote and guidance. A signal of further increases could support the Pound; a cautious message could prompt profit-taking after its recent rise.
GBP/USD is near 1.3484, above 1.3477 and the 1.3455–1.3437 support zone. The rising channel remains intact. Clearing the initial barrier at 1.3494 would shift focus to resistance at 1.3511–1.3529, with 1.3546 beyond it.
Bias: Neutral to Cautiously Bullish
USD/JPY
Resistance: 158.51/158.68
Support: 157.82/157.65
Analyst’s View: The BoJ’s September minutes favored further hikes, potentially faster if inflation overshoots. They describe earlier discussions. Lower US yields may narrow the Dollar’s interest-rate advantage; upcoming labor data could alter that outlook.
USD/JPY is near 158.13 after another rejection below 158.51–158.68. It has slipped below 158.35 and is testing 158.14. Further weakness would bring 157.98 into view before the marked support at 157.82–157.65. Recovering 158.35 would support stabilization.
Bias: Neutral to Cautiously Bearish
US Crude Oil Futures (USOIL)
Resistance: 89.55/91.65
Support: 84.77/82.60
Analyst’s View: Oil fell on hopes that the election result would increase pressure to end the Iran war. Qatar’s mediation continues, but Iran’s conditions leave major obstacles. Congressional oversight alone cannot reopen Hormuz or guarantee a deal.
New US sanctions targeting networks linked to Iranian oil shipments indicate that pressure continues alongside diplomacy. Renewed disruption could restore part of the risk premium; an agreement and more reliable shipping would support a lasting reduction in that premium.
USOIL is nearly $87.50 after a sharp break below the descending channel. The first nearby floor is $86.87. A sustained move below it would expose the marked support zone at $84.77–$82.60, extending the sequence of lower highs and lows.
Bias: Cautiously Bearish
Spot Gold and Spot Silver
Spot Gold Resistance: 4132/4164
Spot Gold Support: 4082/4051
Spot Silver Resistance: 53.74/54.63
Spot Silver Support: 52.35/51.64
Analyst’s View: Lower yields reduce the income investors forgo by holding gold, while a softer Dollar can boost demand from other currencies. These forces support the recovery above $4,000 and help explain why gold can rise alongside equities.
ADP reported 86,000 additional private-sector jobs in October. ISM services eased to 54.5 but stayed above the 50-expansion threshold. These readings keep further Fed tightening in play. Jobless claims, labor costs, and Friday’s wages could test whether yields can keep falling.
Gold is near $4,105 after reclaiming $4,082 and moving into a rising channel. The initial hurdle is $4,107, with resistance at $4,132–$4,164. Clearing that zone would open $4,188. A pullback should first be assessed against $4,082 and $4,051; below them lies $4,026.
Silver is near $52.60 after recovering above $52.35 and reaching the rising channel’s midline. Clearing $53.05 would improve the advance toward $53.74–$54.63. Its industrial demand exposure also makes the growth outlook important, alongside the Dollar and yields.
Both metals have recovered strongly, but the marked resistance zones still require confirmation. Holding the new support areas would provide a firmer base than a brief intraday break higher.
Bias: Gold Cautiously Bullish; Silver Neutral to Cautiously Bullish
Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30)
Resistance: 53602/53793
Support: 53152/52958
Analyst’s View: Election clarity and cheaper oil helped the Dow lead Wednesday’s rally. Lower energy costs can help consumers and businesses, while falling yields support valuations. Sustaining those benefits depends on oil prices staying low and political uncertainty remaining contained.
DJIA is near 53,466 after breaking above 52,958 and 53,352. It is approaching the upper boundary of the rising channel, with resistance at 53,602–53,793. A sustained break above that zone would bring 53,990 into focus. A pullback would first test 53,352, then support at 53,152 and 52,958. Holding those levels would preserve the breakout.
Bias: Cautiously Bullish
Nasdaq 100 Index (NAS100)
Resistance: 28747/29134
Support: 28131/27738
Analyst’s View: Large AI companies gained, but chipmakers and data-center operators faced concerns about tighter oversight and slower construction. Qualcomm’s after-hours weakness adds handset-demand risk. Lower yields help valuations, but earnings still matter.
NAS100 is near 28,223 after a rebound stalled around 28,444, leaving it below the descending channel’s midline. Recovering 28,444 would improve stabilization before the marked resistance at 28,747–29,134. The rebound has not yet broken the broader falling structure. The immediate marked support is 28,131, with 27,738 next.
Bias: Neutral to Cautiously Bearish
Bitcoin(BTC)
Resistance: 81,863/82,589
Support: 79,473/78,734
Analyst’s View: Lower US yields, a softer dollar, and improved risk appetite supported Bitcoin’s recovery. However, Democratic control of Congress could lead to closer scrutiny of digital assets. The initial rally reflects market sentiment and does not guarantee a more favorable regulatory outlook.
Bitcoin is near $80,358 after rebounding sharply from $75,606. It has recovered to $80,211 and is testing the rising channel’s midline. Clearing $80,937 would strengthen the advance toward $81,863–$82,589 resistance.
Bias: Neutral to Cautiously Bullish
Disclaimer: This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.
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