ATFX Market Outlook | October 22nd, 2026
Oil Holds Near Highs as Gold Slips Ahead of Fed Decision
Key Takeaways
Oil rose in early Thursday trading as attacks on Saudi and Russian energy facilities renewed supply concerns, while U.S. crude inventories fell by 3.1 million barrels. Gold retreated toward $4,100 as higher energy costs sustained inflation concerns and expectations of further Fed tightening.
U.S. stocks advanced on Wednesday, but futures declined after technology earnings. Meta reported revenue growth, a higher fourth-quarter sales outlook, and substantial capital spending. Tesla’s results shifted attention to investment costs and margins. Sterling held near 1.3400 as UK inflation reinforced expectations of a November BoE hike.
Today’s Focus
BoE Governor Bailey speaks at 18:50 (GMT+8), followed by U.S. initial jobless claims at 20:30, forecast at 200,000 versus 199,000 previously. Euro area consumer confidence and the U.S. leading index follow at 22:00. Earnings reactions and oil supply developments may shape equity and bond trading ahead of Friday’s Japan CPI and global flash PMIs.
Global Market Review
Wednesday’s U.S. cash session: the Dow gained 0.69% to 52,856, the S&P 500 rose 0.58% to 7,757, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.05% to 26,702. The Dollar Index slipped 0.03% to 101.69. The 2-year Treasury yield rose 3.0 basis points to 4.806%, while the 10-year rose 1.1 basis points to 5.119%. Brent gained 0.90% to $109.77, WTI fell 0.68% to $97.15, and gold rose 0.39% to $4,140.38. Early Thursday quotes subsequently put WTI near $98 and gold near $4,115.
Economic Calendar October 22 (GMT+8)
00:00 ECB President Lagarde Speech ***
05:45 NZ CPI YoY Q3 **
18:50 BoE Governor Bailey Speech **
20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims ***
22:00 EU Flash Consumer Confidence OCT **
22:00 US CB Leading Index MoM SEP **
October 23 (GMT+8)
06:00 AU Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI OCT **
07:30 JP CPI YoY SEP **
08:30 JP Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI OCT **
14:00 UK Retail Sales YoY SEP **
15:30 Germany Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI OCT **
16:00 Euro Area Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI OCT **
16:30 UK Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI OCT **
21:45 US Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI OCT ***
22:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final OCT ***
Market Analysis
Four-hour chart quotes may differ from cash closes and news prices because of timing and contract specifications.
EUR/USD
Resistance: 1.1278/1.1310
Support: 1.1215/1.1176
Analyst’s View: France’s fiscal risks and an upcoming credit-rating review may limit Euro gains, while Friday’s PMIs will test the growth outlook. EUR/USD is near 1.1231, below the rising channel’s midline and the 1.1246 Fibonacci level. A recovery above 1.1246 would bring 1.1278 and 1.1310 into focus; below 1.1215, the next marked support is 1.1176.
Bias: Neutral to Cautiously Bearish
GBP/USD
Resistance: 1.3439/1.3471
Support: 1.3367/1.3336
Analyst’s View: Higher UK inflation supports November BoE hike expectations, with Bailey’s remarks and Friday’s retail sales as the next policy inputs. GBP/USD is near 1.3391, consolidating below the 1.3407 high in the lower half of a rising channel. Above 1.3407, resistance is 1.3439/1.3471; below 1.3367, the next marked support is 1.3336.
Bias: Cautiously Bullish
USD/JPY
Resistance: 158.35/158.65
Support: 157.97/157.67
Analyst’s View: Himino’s inflation comments and intervention warnings support the Yen, although expectations of an October BoJ hold limit the policy repricing. Friday’s Japan CPI is the next test. USD/JPY is near 158.16, close to the midline of the gently rising channel. Above 158.35, resistance is 158.65; below 157.97, the next marked support is 157.67.
Bias: Neutral Within a Range
US Crude Oil Futures
Resistance: 101.45/103.75
Support: 94.43/91.54
Analyst’s View: Attacks on energy facilities and the 3.1-million-barrel drawdown in the U.S. inventory support oil, while recovering exports could limit gains. USOIL is near $98.10 after holding around $96.77 but remains below the descending channel’s midline and the $99.11 Fibonacci level. Above $99.11, resistance is $101.45/$103.75; below intermediate support at $96.77, the marked zone is $94.43–$91.54.
Bias: Neutral to Cautiously Bearish
Spot Gold & Spot Silver
Spot Gold Resistance: 4142/4160
Spot Gold Support: 4090/4068
Spot Silver Resistance: 58.42/59.13
Spot Silver Support: 56.09/55.39
Analyst’s View: Oil-related inflation concerns and higher short-term Treasury yields raise gold’s opportunity cost. Gold is near $4,111 after its rebound stalled at $4,142, below the descending channel’s midline and the $4,125 level. A break below $4,107/$4,100 would bring $4,090 and $4,068 into focus; above $4,142, resistance is at $4,160. Higher yields also weigh on silver, while Friday’s global PMIs may influence expectations for industrial demand. Silver is trading near $57.23, below the midline of the short-term rising channel and the $57.70 Fibonacci level. A recovery above $57.70 would bring $58.42/$59.13 into focus; below intermediate support at $56.82, the marked supports are $56.09/$55.39.
Bias: Gold Cautiously Bearish; Silver Neutral to Cautiously Bearish
Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30)
Resistance: 52965/53082
Support: 52467/52353
Analyst’s View: Wednesday’s earnings-supported advance faces higher energy costs and Treasury yields, with P&G, Lockheed Martin and Honeywell results due today. US30 is near 52,679 after retreating from around 52,900 but remains above the rising channel’s midline. A recovery through 52,735/52,848 would bring 52,965/53,082 into focus; below 52,586, marked support is at 52,467/52,353.
Bias: Neutral to Cautiously Bullish
Nasdaq 100 Index (NAS100)
Resistance: 29786/29940
Support: 29447/29296
Analyst’s View: Meta’s sales outlook supports the earnings picture, while Tesla’s margin pressures and substantial AI spending remain valuation concerns. NAS100 is near 29,596 after declining from the 29,786 area, trading below the rebound channel’s midline and near the 29,593 Fibonacci level. Above 29,786, resistance is 29,940; below 29,447, the next marked support is 29,296.
Bias: Neutral to Cautiously Bearish
Bitcoin (BTC)
Resistance: 85316/85997
Support: 83047/82511
Analyst’s View: Strong corporate earnings have supported risk appetite, while higher oil prices and Fed tightening expectations may limit gains. Bitcoin is near $84,275 after pulling back from $84,771, but remains above the rising channel’s midline. Above $84,771, resistance is $85,316/$85,997; below $83,573, the marked supports are $83,047/$82,511.
Bias: Cautiously Bullish
Disclaimer: This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.
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