ATFX Market Outlook | 2nd November 2026
Midterms and Earnings in Focus as Gold Rebounds and Oil Eases
Key Takeaways
Tuesday’s U.S. midterms, today’s Apple and Palantir earnings, and Friday’s nonfarm payrolls set the stage for a week of policy and profit tests. The RBA and BoE decisions will also help shape rate expectations as investors assess persistent energy costs and slowing factory activity.
Iran diplomacy remains a separate source of uncertainty. Oil has eased, and gold is rebounding from Friday’s lows, but conditional talks and unresolved shipping risks leave both markets sensitive to new developments.
Today’s Focus
Manufacturing surveys lead today’s data agenda, with the US ISM at 23:00 GMT+8. New orders, employment and prices paid will help distinguish growth momentum from cost pressures ahead of Friday’s jobs report. Apple and Palantir report after the U.S. close today, early Tuesday in GMT+8.
Global Market Review
Friday, October 30: the Dow fell 1.09% to 51,770.31; the S&P 500 lost 1.82% to 7,580.07; and the Nasdaq Composite declined 2.86% to 25,437.00. Technology led the selloff as investors reassessed AI spending, cash flow and earnings guidance.
The supplied closing snapshot showed the Dollar Index at 101.96, the 2-year Treasury yield at 4.588% and the 10-year at 4.929%. Brent was $113.43, WTI $104.12 and gold $3,875.02.
Early Monday reports showed a modest recovery in U.S. futures and oil, with Brent around $112. The supplied charts later showed USOIL near $101.67, gold near $3,909 and Bitcoin near $78,475; these are separate quote snapshots.
Economic Calendar November 2 (GMT+8)
09:45 China RatingDog Manufacturing PMI OCT **
15:00 Germany Retail Sales MoM SEP **
16:55 Germany Manufacturing PMI Final OCT **
17:00 Euro Area Manufacturing PMI Final OCT **
17:30 UK Manufacturing PMI Final OCT **
22:45 US Manufacturing PMI Final OCT **
23:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI OCT ***
November 3 (GMT+8)
Japan holiday — Culture Day; U.S. midterm elections (U.S. local date)
11:30 RBA Rate Decision and Statement on Monetary Policy ***
12:30 RBA Press Conference **
23:00 US JOLTS Job Openings SEP **
23:00 US Factory Orders MoM SEP **
Earnings: Apple and Palantir after the U.S. close November 2 (early November 3 GMT+8); AMD after the U.S. close November 3 (early November 4 GMT+8).
U.S. daylight saving time ended November 1. U.S. cash equities now trade 22:30–05:00 GMT+8; election results may develop on November 4 in GMT+8.
Market Analysis
Four-hour chart prices may differ from cash closes and news quotes because of timing and instrument specifications.
EUR/USD
Resistance: 1.1210/1.1233
Support: 1.1136/1.1113
Analyst’s View: European retail sales and factory data will test growth after the ECB’s hold. High energy costs and France’s fiscal uncertainty remain constraints. U.S. ISM and payrolls will also shape Fed expectations and Dollar demand, influencing whether the Euro can extend its rebound.
EUR/USD is near 1.1170 after rebounding from 1.1113 and retreating again from above 1.1200. Price remains below the descending channel’s midline. A recovery to 1.1173 and 1.1191 would improve the short-term picture ahead of 1.1210–1.1233 resistance. Below 1.1155, attention returns to the marked supports at 1.1136 and 1.1113.
Bias: Cautiously Bearish
GBP/USD
Resistance: 1.3437/1.3455
Support: 1.3363/1.3346
Analyst’s View: UK inflation at 3.5% supports expectations of a BoE hike to 4.00% on Thursday, but the vote split and forecasts will shape the subsequent rate outlook. Today’s manufacturing PMI provides an activity check, while U.S. data and election developments could still drive Sterling through Dollar demand.
GBP/USD is near 1.3390 after pulling back from above 1.3420. Price remains in the upper half of the rising channel. A recovery to 1.3398 and 1.3420 would bring the 1.3437–1.3455 resistance zone into focus.
Bias: Neutral to Cautiously Bullish
USD/JPY
Resistance: 158.52/158.95
Support: 157.18/156.76
Analyst’s View: The BoJ’s Friday hold at 1.25% keeps the timing of its next hike in focus. Japan’s inflation supports tightening, but the U.S.–Japan rate gap still favours the Dollar. ISM and payrolls will inform expectations for that gap, while intervention concerns remain a constraint on sharp Yen declines.
USD/JPY is near 157.79 after rebounding from 157.18 and moving above the descending channel’s midline. A break above 157.85 would bring 158.19 into focus before the marked resistance at 158.52 and 158.95.
Bias: Neutral to Cautiously Bullish
US Crude Oil Futures
Resistance: 104.16/105.19
Support: 99.71/98.65
Analyst’s View: Talks involving Iran and Qatari mediators have eased some immediate escalation concerns, helping oil pull back. However, the proposal to restore Hormuz traffic remains conditional, while attacks on shipping and energy infrastructure leave supply risks unresolved.
OPEC+ kept December production targets unchanged. With actual exports still disrupted, unchanged targets do not guarantee stable supply. The midterms add headline risk, but subsequent military action remains a scenario rather than a confirmed event. USOIL is near $101.67 after retreating from the $104 area. A sustained break below the channel boundary would bring $100.76 into focus, followed by the marked support zone at $99.71–$98.65.
Bias: Neutral to Cautiously Bearish
Spot Gold & Spot Silver
Spot Gold Resistance: 3955/3973
Spot Gold Support: 3858/3840
Spot Silver Resistance: 51.74/52.42
Spot Silver Support: 48.87/48.21
Analyst’s View: Gold is rebounding as lower oil prices ease some immediate inflation concerns. Energy costs remain high, however, and a December Fed hike remains possible. This week’s manufacturing PMI and employment data will help shape those rate expectations. The preceding selloff also coincided with reports of investors raising cash during the technology decline. Such selling may have reduced gold’s usual support from lower yields, but the scale of margin-driven liquidation has not been independently established.
Gold is near $3,909 after rebounding from around $3,880. Price remains below $3,915 and the $3,955–$3,973 resistance zone. A recovery to $3,915 and $3,938 would help stabilise the rebound; below $3,898 and $3,880, support is marked at $3,858 and $3,840.
Silver’s industrial demand adds sensitivity to today’s factory surveys. It is near $49.89 after rebounding from the lower channel boundary. Recovering $50.23 and $51.06 would bring $51.74–$52.42 into focus; below $49.54, attention returns to $48.87 and $48.21.
Bias: Gold Cautiously Bearish; Silver Cautiously Bearish
Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30)
Resistance: 52160/52350
Support: 51593/51355
Analyst’s View: Friday’s technology selloff affected the broader market, although the Dow fell less than the Nasdaq. Today’s ISM survey will update orders, employment and input costs for industrial companies. The midterms could reshape fiscal, trade and regulatory expectations. Jobs data and Treasury borrowing guidance also matter for yields and financing costs, with potentially different effects across sectors.
US30 is near 51,979 after rebounding from around 51,593. It remains below the rising channel’s midline and the 52,160–52,350 resistance zone. Holding 51,970 would support stabilisation, but it must reclaim that resistance for a firmer recovery. Below 51,780, attention returns to 51,593 near the channel’s lower boundary, followed by 51,355. The early bounce has not yet reversed the deterioration caused by Friday’s decline.
Bias: Neutral to Cautiously Bearish
Nasdaq 100 Index (NAS100)
Resistance: 29134/29440
Support: 28131/27738
Analyst’s View: Apple and Palantir report after Monday’s U.S. close, followed by AMD on Tuesday. Apple’s consumer demand and guidance, Palantir’s commercial AI growth, and AMD’s chip outlook offer different tests of whether technology spending is generating sustainable returns.
NAS100 is near 28,623 after rebounding from below 28,444 but remains under 28,747 and the descending channel’s midline. A move below 28,444 would return attention to 28,131 and 27,738. Until price regains the resistance zone, the bounce remains a recovery within the broader downtrend.
Bias: Cautiously Bearish
Bitcoin (BTC)
Resistance: 80508/81535
Support: 76159/75150
Analyst’s View: Binance is restoring withdrawals in phases and says it has covered about 95% of affected assets. It has pledged to absorb the financial impact. Restoring access reduces one disruption, but confidence and fund outflows remain important. Technology earnings, the elections and U.S. jobs data will also shape risk appetite. A broader recovery could support Bitcoin, while renewed concerns about exchange security or higher borrowing costs could interrupt it.
Bitcoin is near $78,475 after recovering from the $76,159 area. Price is above $78,212 but below the rising channel’s midline near $79,482. If $78,212 gives way, the next intermediate level is $77,168, followed by $76,159 and $75,150. The rebound has improved the immediate picture, but price has yet to regain the key resistance zone.
Bias: Neutral to Cautiously Bearish
Disclaimer: This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.
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