ATFX Market Outlook | November 13, 2026
Gold Slides as Fed Hike Bets Fuel Dollar Rally
Key Takeaways
Gold fell as expectations of a December Fed rate hike lifted the dollar and US Treasury yields. A stronger dollar makes gold more expensive overseas, while higher yields increase the appeal of bonds. Today’s US PPI report will test whether this pressure continues.
Nvidia’s leadership transition adds uncertainty to the AI trade. Jensen Huang has resigned, and CFO Colette Kress is interim CEO. Applied Materials’ strong results suggest chip investment remains firm, but Nvidia’s November 17 earnings will test confidence in the sector.
Today’s Focus
US October PPI is due at 21:30 GMT+8. Economists expect headline prices to rise 0.4% month-over-month and core prices 0.3%, following September’s 1.3% and 0.7% increases. The surprise relative to forecasts and the underlying components will matter more than the slowdown alone. Euro area GDP at 18:00 may shape the euro’s near-term response.
Oil remains sensitive to US–Iran headlines after renewed shipping attacks lifted prices despite a reported 4.657 million-barrel build in US crude inventories. Next week brings US retail sales, UK inflation and the Fed’s October meeting minutes.
Global Market Review
On Thursday, the Dow fell 0.36% to 52,297.09, the S&P 500 lost 0.35% to 7,592.40, and the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.39% to 25,366.09. Nvidia closed 4.3% lower, while gains in AMD and Broadcom helped limit the wider market decline.
The supplied market snapshot shows the dollar index up 0.34% at 103.19 and two- and 10-year Treasury yields at 4.882% and 5.127%. Brent rose 3.28% to $95.80, and WTI gained 2.55% to $88.74. Gold fell 2.81% to $3,873.50; later chart prices below reflect subsequent moves.
Economic Calendar
November 13 (GMT+8)
01:00 EIA Crude Inventories, week ended November 6 — released ★★
03:30 ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks — earlier today ★★★
18:00EU GDP Q3 ★★★
21:30US PPI OCT ★★★
Week Ahead November 16–20 (GMT+8 dates)
Mon 16: Japan Q3 GDP; China retail sales and industrial output; Canada CPI; euro area industrial production; US Empire State survey.
Tue 17: RBA minutes; UK labour market data; euro area ZEW; US retail sales and industrial production.
Wed 18: API inventories; UK CPI and PPI; euro area final CPI; US housing starts and permits; EIA inventories.
Thu 19: FOMC minutes; Australian employment; US jobless claims and leading indicators.
Fri 20: Japan CPI; China one- and five-year loan prime rates; German PPI; UK retail sales; euro area consumer confidence; final US Michigan sentiment.
Market Analysis
EUR/USD
Resistance: 1.1104 / 1.1129
Support: 1.1000 / 1.0980
Analyst’s View: The dollar’s rate advantage continues to pressure the euro. Today’s PPI and euro area GDP could change the pace of the decline, but a modest bounce would need to reclaim broken support before the outlook improves.
EUR/USD is near 1.1062 after falling through 1.1104 and 1.1084. The rebound from the descending channel’s lower boundary has reached the 1.1064 extension, but the sequence of lower highs and lower lows remains intact.Failure to reclaim 1.1064 would keep 1.1039 in focus. A close below 1.1039 would expose 1.1020, then the marked 1.1000–1.0980 support zone.
Bias: Cautiously bearish
GBP/USD
Resistance: 1.3307 / 1.3334
Support: 1.3158 / 1.3131
Analyst’s View: UK growth has offered limited protection against broad dollar strength. Next week’s labour market and inflation data will help assess the BoE outlook, while today’s US PPI is the more immediate catalyst.
GBP/USD is near 1.3237 after breaking below 1.3273 and 1.3246. Buyers have appeared near the descending channel’s lower boundary around 1.3219, but the small rebound remains below the latest broken support.A close below 1.3219 would extend the decline toward 1.3184. A break of 1.3184 would expose the marked 1.3158–1.3131 support zone and suggest the bounce from the channel boundary has failed.
Bias: Cautiously bearish
USD/JPY
Resistance: 160.40 / 160.74
Support: 159.29 / 158.96
Analyst’s View: Higher US yields support the pair, but trading near 160 increases sensitivity to Japanese official warnings and intervention risk. Markets are focused on that round number, but it is not a guaranteed trigger for action.
USD/JPY is consolidating near 159.89 after a sharp breakout above 158.96. It remains above 159.64 within a rising channel, while repeated hesitation below 160 shows that buyers have yet to secure the next breakout.A four-hour close above 160.07 would strengthen the case for a move toward 160.40. Holding above 160.40 on a retest would put 160.74 in view.
Bias: Cautiously bullish
WTI Crude Oil (USOIL)
Resistance: $91.67 / $93.82
Support: $84.76 / $82.58
Analyst’s View: Renewed supply concerns have lifted oil despite the US inventory build. Shipping attacks and uncertain US–Iran diplomacy can produce sharp price swings, so the recovery needs confirmation beyond a single strong session.
WTI is near $88.10 after reclaiming $86.87 and moving above the descending channel’s midpoint. A four-hour close above $89.56 would put the channel’s upper boundary under pressure.
A sustained break through that boundary would favour $91.67, followed by $93.82. That sequence would provide stronger evidence of a broader recovery.A close back below $86.87 would weaken the rebound and expose $84.76. A break below $84.76 would put the recent low around $84 under pressure and bring $82.58 into view.
Bias: Neutral
Spot Gold (XAU/USD)
Resistance: $3,944 / $3,977
Support: $3,837 / $3,804
Spot Silver (XAG/USD)
Resistance: $51.16 / $51.76
Support: $49.36 / $48.61
Analyst’s View: The stronger dollar and higher Treasury yields have outweighed gold’s support from geopolitical uncertainty. A softer PPI report could help the metal recover, while another inflation surprise could prolong the pressure.
Gold has bounced to around $3,910 after a steep decline toward $3,870 and a brief move below it. Price has recovered above the descending channel’s midpoint, but is testing $3,911 from below and remains beneath the main resistance zone.Rejection around $3,911 would leave $3,870 vulnerable to another test. A close below $3,870 and the recent low would expose $3,837–$3,804. The current rebound therefore needs follow-through before it can be treated as a trend change.
Silver is near $50.69 after rebounding from the $49.95 area. It has moved back above $50.55, but remains below the descending channel’s midpoint and the former $51.16 support, which now acts as resistance.A close below $50.55 would shift attention back to $49.95. A break below the recent low would expose $49.36 and then $48.61. Failure to reclaim $51.16 would leave the pattern of lower highs intact.
Bias: Gold & Silver Cautiously bearish
Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30)
Resistance: 52,997 / 53,342
Support: 51,942 / 51,507
Analyst’s View: The Dow’s modest Thursday decline suggests that Nvidia’s weakness has not become broad market selling. Higher yields still present a risk, and today’s PPI could determine whether the recent recovery attracts further buying.
US30 is near 52,438 after another rejection around 52,645. The recovery remains within a gently rising channel, with price near its midpoint and above 52,293. Repeated failures near 52,645 show that buyers still face resistance.A four-hour close above 52,645 would strengthen the recovery and bring the upper channel boundary into view. Clearing that boundary would favour the 52,997–53,342 resistance zone, followed by 53,783 if momentum continues.
Bias: Neutral to cautiously bullish
Nasdaq 100 (NAS100)
Resistance: 29,031 / 29,468
Support: 27,695 / 27,143
Analyst’s View: Nvidia’s leadership change remains a risk for the index, while Applied Materials’ results support the case for continued chip spending. Nvidia’s earnings next week will be an important test of demand and management continuity.
NAS100 is near 28,481 after recovering from the 28,140 area. Higher lows within a rising channel support the rebound, but the index has yet to sustain a break above 28,585, where the prior advance stalled.A four-hour close above 28,585 would favour an advance toward the rising channel’s upper boundary and 29,031. Holding above 29,031 on a retest would put 29,468 in view and strengthen the recovery from the November low.
Bias: Cautiously bullish
Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Resistance: $72,218 / $72,868
Support: $69,475 / $68,814
Analyst’s View: Higher US yields and a stronger dollar continue to pressure Bitcoin. MSCI’s planned removal of Strategy and Metaplanet adds uncertainty around crypto-linked shares; index funds selling those shares do not require the companies to sell Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is near $70,811 after breaking below $72,868, $72,218 and $71,568. Price is testing the $70,929 extension near the descending channel’s lower boundary, with no clear sign yet that the sequence of lower highs has ended.A close below $70,114 would expose $69,475, close to the projected lower channel boundary. A close below $69,475 would put $68,814 in focus.
Bias: Cautiously bearish
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
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