ATFX Market Outlook | October 29th, 2026
Fed Holds Rates; PCE and ECB Take Center Stage
Key Takeaways
With the Fed decision complete, attention turns to today’s U.S. PCE inflation, third-quarter GDP and ECB announcement, followed by the BoJ tomorrow. The Fed’s two dissenters favored a hike, but the committee made no commitment on December. Mixed Microsoft and Alphabet results add an earnings test for technology shares.
Today’s Focus
U.S. core PCE, GDP and jobless claims arrive together at 20:30 (GMT+8). Core PCE is forecast at 0.3% month-on-month and GDP at 3.2% annualized. The ECB follows at 21:15, with its press conference at 21:45; inflation assessments and guidance on further tightening will be central.
Global Market Review
Wednesday, October 28: the Dow gained 97.53 points, or 0.19%, to 52,475.10; the S&P 500 rose 0.28% to 7,743.98; and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.27% to 26,549.85. Futures subsequently weakened as Alphabet fell after earnings, while Microsoft advanced.
Reference quotes showed the Dollar Index at 102.15 (-0.21%), the 2-year Treasury yield at 4.697% (-3.9 bps) and the 10-year at 5.018% (+2.1 bps). WTI was $102.78 (+2.88%) and gold $4,067.04 (+0.23%). Thursday’s later chart snapshots put USOIL near $101.88 and gold near $4,063.
Economic Calendar
October 29 (GMT+8)
18:00 Euro Area Economic Sentiment OCT **
20:30 US Core PCE Price Index MoM SEP ***
20:30 US GDP Annualized QoQ Advance Q3 ***
20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims ***
21:15 ECB Rate Decision ***
21:45 ECB Press Conference ***
October 30 (GMT+8)
08:30 AU PPI QoQ Q3 **
Time TBC: BoJ Rate Decision ***
Time TBC: BoJ Quarterly Outlook Report (Bank’s View) ***
14:30 BoJ Press Conference ***
17:00 Germany GDP QoQ Flash Q3 ***
18:00 Euro Area GDP QoQ Flash Q3 ***
20:30 Canada GDP MoM AUG **
21:00 Germany CPI YoY Preliminary OCT **
Market Analysis
Four-hour chart snapshots may differ from cash closes and reference quotes because of timing and instrument specifications.
EUR/USD
Resistance: 1.1173/1.1192
Support: 1.1113/1.1095
Analyst’s View: The Fed’s divided hold leaves further tightening in view, but today’s PCE and GDP releases will help shape that outlook. The ECB is also expected to hold, so the comparison between the two banks’ guidance will matter for the Euro. France’s unresolved fiscal issues remain a domestic constraint, despite some relief from Moody’s rating decision.
EUR/USD is near 1.1146 after rebounding from the 1.1113 area. Price has recovered to 1.1137 and moved above the descending channel’s midline, although 1.1155 remains an immediate hurdle. Clearing it would bring 1.1173 and 1.1192 into focus. A loss of 1.1137 would weaken the stabilization and draw attention back to 1.1113, then 1.1095.
Bias: Neutral to Cautiously Bearish
GBP/USD
Resistance: 1.3353/1.3386
Support: 1.3246/1.3212
Analyst’s View: Sterling is balancing expectations of a November BoE hike against uncertainty over the U.S. rate outlook. UK inflation at 3.5% supports the tightening case, while investors continue to assess the Budget’s implications for growth and borrowing. Today’s U.S. data could determine whether Dollar moves reinforce or interrupt the Pound’s recovery.
GBP/USD is near 1.3324 after recovering from 1.3278 and moving above the midline of the descending channel. Holding 1.3312 would support another attempt toward 1.3353 and 1.3386, although the channel still limits the broader recovery. If price falls back below 1.3278, attention would shift toward the marked supports at 1.3246 and 1.3212.
Bias: Neutral
USD/JPY
Resistance: 158.20/158.53
Support: 157.18/156.76
Analyst’s View: The U.S.–Japan rate gap continues to favor the Dollar, but tomorrow’s BoJ forecasts could alter expectations for December. Japan’s core inflation at 2.1% keeps further tightening relevant even if the Bank holds at 1.25%. Official warnings against disorderly currency moves may also temper further Yen weakness.
USD/JPY is near 157.88 after rebounding from the 156.41 area, above the descending channel’s midline but below 158.20 resistance. Holding above 157.86 would support another test of 158.20, then 158.53. A decline through the intermediate level at 157.52 would instead bring 157.18 and 156.76 into focus.
Bias: Neutral
US Crude Oil Futures
Resistance: 104.16/105.20
Support: 100.74/99.68
Analyst’s View: Oil continues to respond to competing supply headlines. Regional diplomacy has raised hopes of avoiding a wider conflict, while threats to Saudi infrastructure and shipping keep disruption risks in focus. Further progress in talks could reduce the risk premium, whereas renewed attacks could reverse that relief. Today’s U.S. growth data also provides a demand-side test.
USOIL is near $101.88 after pulling back from the $102.83 area. Price remains just above the $101.80 Fibonacci level but below the midline of the rising channel. A recovery to $102.83 would support a test of $104.16 and $105.20. A failure to hold $101.80 would weaken the immediate rebound and bring $100.74, then $99.68, into focus.
Bias: Neutral
Spot Gold & Spot Silver
Spot Gold Resistance: 4113/4140
Spot Gold Support: 4028/4001
Spot Silver Resistance: 54.95/55.65
Spot Silver Support: 53.37/52.68
Analyst’s View: Gold has recovered above $4,000, but elevated oil prices and the Fed’s divided vote keep inflation and tightening risks relevant. Today’s core PCE release will test that outlook.
Gold is near $4,063 within a short-term rising channel, just above $4,061 but below $4,087. Holding $4,061 and clearing $4,087 would improve the rebound and bring $4,113 and $4,140 into focus. A break below $4,028 would instead expose $4,001, with the recent low near $3,975 relevant beyond it.
Silver also faces the inflation and rate test, while GDP matters for its industrial-demand outlook. Price is near $54.11 within a short-term rising channel, just above $54.08. Holding that level would support a recovery toward $54.95 and $55.65. Below $53.37, attention would return to $52.68; the recent bounce alone does not establish a lasting trend reversal. Bias: Gold Neutral to Cautiously
Bullish; Silver Neutral
Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30)
Resistance: 52780/52967
Support: 52351/52160
Analyst’s View: Wednesday’s modest cash-market gain gives way to a fresh test from U.S. growth and inflation data. Stronger activity could support earnings expectations, but persistent inflation could keep financing costs elevated. The Fed’s hold therefore offers limited clarity on its own; investors will assess the data alongside company guidance and the impact of energy costs on margins.
US30 is near 52,663, above 52,587 and the rising channel’s midline after rebounding from the 52,300 area. Holding 52,587 would preserve scope to test 52,780 and 52,967. If the recovery fades and price loses 52,351, the next marked support is 52,160, which would become the focus of a deeper pullback.
Bias: Neutral to Cautiously Bullish in the Short Term
Nasdaq 100 Index (NAS100)
Resistance: 29746/30056
Support: 29135/28747
Analyst’s View: Alphabet fell as investors weighed its results and investment spending. Investment-related losses affected Alphabet’s reported profit, while its capital spending kept cash generation in focus. The contrasting results highlight earnings quality alongside the inflation and rate outlook that influences technology valuations.
NAS100 is near 29,531 after retreating from the 29,746 area, but it remains above 29,438 and the descending channel’s midline. A recovery to 29,746 would bring 30,056 into focus. A loss of 29,438 would weaken the recent rebound and expose 29,135, followed by 28,747. The broader descending channel remains relevant despite last week’s recovery from lows.
Bias: Neutral to Cautiously Bearish
Bitcoin (BTC)
Resistance: 81988/82661
Support: 79796/79134
Analyst’s View: Bitcoin’s earlier rebound toward $81,000 followed improved tech sentiment ahead of the Fed decision. The next test is whether it can hold that recovery as technology futures weaken and markets reassess tightening risks. Today’s PCE and GDP releases could influence both rate expectations and risk appetite, while Strategy’s recent purchase pause removes one source of regular buying.
Bitcoin is near $80,801, above the $80,481 Fibonacci level but below the midline of a short-term rising channel. A recovery to $81,314 would bring $81,988 and $82,661 into focus. A break below $80,481 would weaken the rebound and return attention to $80,000, followed by the marked supports at $79,796 and $79,134.
Bias: Neutral to Cautiously Bearish
Disclaimer: This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.
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