ATFX Market Outlook | November 12, 2026
Euro Falls to 18-Month Low as Fed Rate Hike Bets Lift Dollar
Key Takeaways
The dollar remains supported by expectations of further Fed tightening. A 25-basis-point December hike is the main scenario, with roughly a 10–13% probability of a larger 50-basis-point move in recent market pricing. Fed remarks and Friday’s US PPI will test that outlook.
Gold has slipped below $4,000, while USD/JPY has approached 160. Japan’s stronger wholesale inflation supports the case for another BoJ hike, but the wide US–Japan rate gap still favours the dollar.
Oil remains caught between US–Iran diplomacy hopes and continued shipping risks near Hormuz. The official EIA report will help assess US stockpiles after industry data indicated a large crude build.
Today’s Focus
UK third-quarter GDP is due at 15:00 GMT+8, with 0.7% quarter-over-quarter growth expected. US jobless claims at 21:30 and existing home sales at 23:00 will offer further evidence on whether demand is holding up as rate expectations rise.
Watch Fed speakers, including John Williams, and BoJ member Toichiro Asada’s remarks. Early Friday brings EIA inventories at 01:00, the $25 billion US 30-year bond auction at 02:00, and Lagarde’s appearance at 03:30. US PPI follows at 21:30, with a 0.4% monthly rise forecast.
Global Market Review
On Wednesday, the Dow gained 0.48% to 52,486.49, the S&P 500 rose 1.31% to 7,619.38, and the Nasdaq Composite added 1.60% to 25,466.19. CoreWeave climbed 24.7%, supporting the wider AI trade before Nvidia’s after-hours decline.
The market snapshot puts the dollar index at 102.90, up 0.66%, and gold at $3,985.62, down 1.12%. Brent was $92.62 and WTI $86.53. US bond markets were closed for Veterans Day; the last available two- and 10-year Treasury yields were 4.738% and 4.990%.
Economic Calendar
November 12 (GMT+8)
15:00UK GDP Q3 ★★★
21:30US Initial Jobless Claims (Week ended November 7) ★★★
23:00US Existing Home Sales OCT ★★
November 13 (GMT+8)
01:00US EIA Crude Oil Inventory Change (Week ended November 6) ★★
02:00US 30-Year Treasury Auction ($25 billion) ★★
03:30ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks ★★★
18:00EU Third-Quarter GDP Q3 ★★★
21:30US PPI OCT ★★★
Market Analysis
Prices and levels refer to ATFX’s November 12 four-hour chart snapshots. They may differ from cash closes and earlier news quotations. A four-hour close means the completed candle, rather than a brief move through a level.
EUR/USD
Resistance: 1.1129 / 1.1149
Support: 1.1064 / 1.1039
Analyst’s View: EUR/USD fell to an 18-month low near 1.1084 as hotter US inflation and hawkish Fed remarks lifted the dollar. Lagarde’s remarks may influence the euro, while Friday’s PPI could reinforce or temper expectations for a larger Fed hike.
EUR/USD has broken below 1.1129 and the prior 1.1104 swing low, reaching 1.1095. The small bounce from around 1.1084 remains below the descending channel’s midpoint and has yet to reverse the sharp selloff. A close below 1.1084 would extend the breakdown toward 1.1064. If that level fails, 1.1039 is the next marked support. A short-lived rebound below 1.1129 would leave the broader bearish structure intact.
Bias: Cautiously bearish
GBP/USD
Resistance: 1.3334 / 1.3361
Support: 1.3219 / 1.3184
Analyst’s View: Megan Greene’s call for proactive BoE tightening offers sterling some support, but the dollar remains dominant. Today’s GDP report will test whether UK growth can withstand higher borrowing costs. GBP/USD is near 1.3276 after falling through 1.3334 and 1.3307. It is testing the prior low at 1.3273 in the lower half of a descending channel. The small candles near that level show a pause, with no confirmed recovery yet. A sustained break below 1.3273 would expose 1.3246, followed by 1.3219 near the lower channel boundary. Losing 1.3219 would put 1.3184 in focus.
Bias: Cautiously bearish
USD/JPY
Resistance: 160.07 / 160.40
Support: 158.96 / 158.53
Analyst’s View: The US–Japan rate gap supports USD/JPY, while Japan’s 7.1% wholesale inflation keeps a BoJ hike in view. Asada’s remarks and any Japanese official response to yen weakness could interrupt the rally near 160.
USD/JPY surged above 158.96 and 159.29 before stalling just short of 160 near the rising channel’s upper boundary. At 159.62, it is pulling back around the 159.64 extension, with the channel midpoint below. A four-hour close above 159.64 would favour another attempt at 160.00. A sustained move through the 160.07–160.40 resistance zone would provide stronger evidence that the rally is extending.
Bias: Cautiously bullish
WTI Crude Oil (USOIL)
Resistance: $89.56 / $91.67
Support: $82.58 / $79.86
Analyst’s View: Reports of possible US–Iran talks weigh on the supply risk premium, while tanker attacks keep disruption risks elevated. EIA inventories at 01:00 GMT+8 on Friday are the next test after reports of a large industry crude build.
WTI’s rebound from near $84 stalled below $89 and around the descending channel’s midpoint. Price has slipped back below $86.87 to $85.76, leaving the lower-high pattern intact. A close below $84.76 would put the recent low near $84 under pressure. A fresh low would bring $82.58 into focus, followed by $79.86 if the decline extends.
Bias: Cautiously bearish
Spot Gold (XAU/USD)
Resistance: $4,042 / $4,082
Support: $3,943 / $3,911
Spot Silver (XAG/USD)
Resistance: $53.12 / $53.72
Support: $50.56 / $49.96
Analyst’s View: Fed hike expectations and the stronger dollar continue to pressure gold. Friday’s PPI could shape expectations for the size of the December move, while central-bank and physical demand may help cushion weakness.
Gold’s rebound stalled near $4,060 before price fell through $4,009 and $4,000. A four-hour close above $4,009 would be the first recovery signal. Reclaiming $4,042 would put $4,082 in view. A move into that resistance zone would still need to hold on a retest to strengthen the bullish case. A close below $3,976 would weaken the bounce from the channel boundary and expose $3,943–$3,911.
Silver’s rebound stalled around $53.13 before another sequence of lower candles took it to $51.71. It is testing $51.77, the descending channel’s midpoint, after briefly reaching $51.16. Failure to hold above $51.77 would put $51.16 back in focus. A close below $51.16 would expose $50.56–$49.96, with $49.36 the next marked level if the support zone fails.
Bias: Gold cautiously bearish; Silver neutral to cautiously bearish
Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30)
Resistance: 52,997 / 53,342
Support: 51,942 / 51,507
Analyst’s View: Wednesday’s tech-led gains lifted the Dow, but renewed Nvidia uncertainty could weigh on broader sentiment. The reopening Treasury market and 30-year auction will test bond demand after the inflation-driven rise in yields.
DJIA has recovered to 52,508 and is holding above 52,293. It remains below 52,645 and the descending channel’s upper boundary, where the previous rebound stalled. A four-hour close above 52,645 would strengthen the recovery and put 52,997 in view. Holding above 52,997 on a retest would favour a move toward 53,342, then the 53,783 swing high.
Bias: Neutral to cautiously bullish
Nasdaq 100 (NAS100)
Resistance: 29,031 / 29,468
Support: 27,143 / 26,691
Analyst’s View: CoreWeave’s upbeat outlook supported Wednesday’s AI rebound, but Nvidia’s after-hours decline creates fresh uncertainty for the index. Any confirmed board decision could outweigh the sector’s near-term earnings support. NAS100 rallied toward 28,585 and the descending channel’s upper boundary, then pulled back to 28,149.Holding above 28,140 would keep another test of 28,585 in play.
A four-hour close above 28,585 would strengthen the recovery and open the way toward the 29,031–29,468 resistance zone.A close below 28,140 would shift attention to 27,695. Losing 27,695 would expose 27,143–26,691; below that support zone, watch the 26,253 swing low.
Bias: Neutral
Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Resistance: $74,985 / $75,622
Support: $72,230 / $71,583
Analyst’s View: The strong dollar, higher US rate expectations, and spot ETF outflows weigh on Bitcoin. MSCI’s planned removal of Strategy on November 30 adds pressure to crypto-linked equities, though index selling of its shares does not itself require Bitcoin sales.
Bitcoin’s rebound from below $72,878 stalled around $74,327 before price returned to $73,535. It is testing $73,503 inside a descending channel, with the recovery still capped by lower highs.A close below $73,503 would put $72,878 back under pressure. A break below $72,878 would expose the $72,230–$71,583 support zone.
Bias: Cautiously bearish
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
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