ATFX Market Outlook - 25th September 2026
U.S. Stocks Under Pressure; Focus Turns to Durable Goods and Consumer Sentiment
(By ATFX Analyst Team)
Key Takeaways
Robust U.S. data lifted Fed rate-hike expectations, pushing the U.S. Dollar Index back above 101, toward 101.62. A weak Treasury auction sent the 10-year yield above 5.1%, while Japan’s 10-year yield hit a new high of about 3.055% on fiscal concerns.
Geopolitical tensions lifted oil prices off their lows, but gains were capped by a more hawkish Fed and a stronger dollar, with U.S. crude futures slipping back below $94. Safe-haven demand helped gold hold $4,250 before rebounding to $4,280.
Japanese equities outperformed on strength in chip stocks, while Chinese, Hong Kong and European stocks came under pressure amid reflation concerns and a high-rate environment.
Today’s focus is on German GfK Consumer Confidence, U.S. Durable Goods Orders and final Michigan Consumer Sentiment; weaker readings could temper rate-hike expectations.
Global Market Review
U.S. stock indices diverged as markets weighed economic data and geopolitical developments. The Dow fell for a third straight day, closing another 161 points (-0.31%), while the S&P 500 posted a milder decline, slipping 1.9 points (-0.02%). Nasdaq gained 3.34 points (+0.03%) at the close as strong AI-related demand offset valuation concerns in tech.
The U.S. Dollar Index rose to a near two-month high after a strong PMI reading of 58.4 raised concerns over sticky inflation and revived expectations of Fed rate hikes.
Gold slipped to a one-week low on higher yields and a firmer dollar, then found support at $4,250 and rebounded to around $4,280. Oil rebounded as wide gaps in U.S.-Iran talks lifted geopolitical risk, with WTI trading near $94.8 in Asia on Friday. Japanese stocks gained on chipmakers, while Chinese, Hong Kong and European markets came under pressure; the Hang Seng opened lower before stabilizing ahead of the China and Hong Kong holidays.
Key Events Today:
14:00 EU GERMANY GfK Consumer Confidence OCT **
20:30 US Durable Goods Orders MoM AUG **
22:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final SEP ***
Key Data and Events Coming Week (GMT+8)
- Monday: JP BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index
- Tuesday: AU RBA Interest Rate Decision & Press Conference, EU Economic Sentiment, CA GDP, US JOLTs Job Openings, US CB Consumer Confidence
- Wednesday: API Crude Oil Stock Change, AU CPI, CN NBS Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing PMI, UK GDP Final & Unemployment Rate, EU GERMANY Unemployment Rate, EU GERMANY CPI Prel, US ADP Employment Change, US Core PCE Price Index, US GDP, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change.
- Thursday: China, Hong Kong Holiday, JP, EU, GERMANY, UK, US S&P Manufacturing PMI, EU Unemployment Rate, US Initial Jobless Claims, US ISM Manufacturing PMI, US Construction Spending
- Friday: China, Hong Kong Holiday, JP Unemployment Rate, EU CPI Flash, US Non-Farm Payrolls.
EURUSD
Resistance: 1.1412 / 1.1435
Support: 1.1342 / 1.1312
Analyst View: On the 4-hour chart, EUR/USD remains below its 10 and 20 moving averages at 1.1385 and 1.1410, leaving room for a further move lower toward 1.1342 and 1.1312. The euro would face additional pressure if German GfK Consumer Confidence continues to deteriorate, and hawkish readings from U.S. Durable Goods Orders and the final Michigan Consumer Sentiment later today would add to that pressure.
Bias: Under Pressure
GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.3274 / 1.3333
Support: 1.3179 / 1.3119
Analyst View: On the 4-hour chart, the 10 and 20 moving averages have trended lower since forming a death cross on September 10. Unless GBP/USD breaks firmly above them, the downtrend is likely to extend. If the U.S. dollar retreats on weaker Durable Goods Orders and consumer sentiment, sterling may stabilize in the short term and attempt an upside break. Tonight’s U.S. data will guide GBP/USD’s direction into the weekly close.
Bias: Short-term Stabilization
USDJPY
Resistance: 159.29 / 160.40
Support: 158.42 / 157.53
Analyst View: USD/JPY pulled back after peaking at 159.01 overnight, forming a rounded top. The pair is now seesawing around 158.50. With the dollar trading at elevated levels and safe-haven demand for the yen possibly strengthening, the likelihood of a further dip toward 157.53 is rising. However, hawkish U.S. data this evening could push the pair back to 159.
Bias: Mildly Bullish with Increasing Volatility
US Crude Oil Futures (NOV)
Resistance: 95.66 / 97.79
Support: 91.45 / 88.78
Analyst View: Oil rebounded from the 23 September low of 88.68 to a high of 96.73 yesterday, then retraced about half of that move and is now holding near 92.70, the 50% retracement level. Prices are expected to consolidate until U.S. inventories and developments in the Middle East provide direction.
Bias: Range-bound
Spot Gold (XAU/USD)
Resistance: 4298 / 4317
Support: 4259 / 4235
Spot Silver (XAG/USD)
Resistance: 64.30 / 64.92
Support: 63.07 / 62.29
Analyst View: Gold met resistance at the 38.2% retracement level of its overnight rebound and pulled back, with $4,259 now in line for a test. Its next move depends on Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar; if the dollar weakens, gold could stabilize and rebound. Ahead of any rebound, watch support at $4,259 / $4,235. Silver is tracking gold and remains range-bound in the short term.
Bias: Stabilizing
Dow Jones Futures (US30)
Resistance: 52,037 / 52,407
Support: 50,811 / 50,332
Analyst View: Dow has drifted lower for three consecutive sessions and is technically consolidating after rebounding from recent lows. Based on the 21–24 September decline, 51,268 and 51,427 mark the current consolidation zone, and a break on either side would signal the next move. Watch the impact of U.S. data on rate-hike expectations; if inflation expectations rise, the index is likely to remain under pressure.
Bias: Under Pressure
NASDAQ 100 (NAS100)
Resistance: 30,568 / 30,807
Support: 30,322 / 30,022
Analyst View: After falling from the September 23 high to an overnight low of 30,079, Nasdaq is hovering near the 61.8% retracement of its rebound, awaiting direction. A move into the 30,568–30,807 zone would favor further gains, while a break below 30,322 would open the way toward 30,022. Profit-taking pressure on technology stocks persists, and the index may extend its correction if data disappoints.
Bias: Short-term Correction
Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Resistance: 86,027 / 86,901
Support: 83,180 / 82,320
Analyst View: Bitcoin remains range-bound near $84,000 after a pullback from recent highs, as elevated Treasury yields and a stronger U.S. dollar weigh on risk appetite. Holding above $83,180 would keep the recovery intact, while a break above $86,027 is needed to resume the uptrend.
Bias: Range-bound
Disclaimer: This analysis is for reference purposes only. Happy trading!
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