EURUSD, Daily
Asian stock markets closed lower again in overnight trade, led by a 1.28% decline in the Nikkei 225, as the Chinese stock markets backed off following a Beijing announcement that large-scale purchases to support the market are not to be expected in the future. This weighed on regional equities, Asian and commodity currencies. At the time of writing, U.S. stock futures are down -125 points, setting the stage for a renewed decline in European stock markets.
Eurozone August inflation data is out later today and it should show a renewed drop in the headline rate closer towards zero in the wake of lower commodity prices, EUR traders will look for further ECB rate clues in language during the press conference on Thursday after the Minimum Bid Rate decision. Traders should also take note that ECB Vice President Constancio said at the Jackson Hole symposium that current inflation forecasts don’t price in recent declines in oil prices. This backs expectations for a downward revision to the central bank’s inflation forecasts at Thursday’s council meeting.
The technical outlook for the EURUSD over the short term is that price is bouncing off the 1.12’s key support level with price potential limited to the upside between the 1.1460 – 1.1530’s. Price looks to be trading at the lower end of the short term upward price channel, and as long as the key 1.12’s hold firm the longs should maintain control over the immediate short term. Short sellers may present themselves on a break below the 1.12’s with support levels seen near the low 1.11’s – 1.1150’s.
Traders should pay some attention to the recent statements by Central Bank “centers of influence members” since a large part of the recent market volatility revolves around the uncertainty of the timing of rate adjustments. The U.S. Fed vice chairman Fischer saying over the weekend that “there is good reason to believe that inflation will move higher as the forces holding down inflation dissipate further,” while BoE Governor Carney said that China uncertainty was unlikely to change UK monetary policy. On Friday, Atlanta Fed moderate Lockhart said he’s less resolute on a September hike in wake of market volatility, according to a Market News report. Market turmoil may change the thinking on policy, he said, though the economy is in “quite solid mode of expansion.”
Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% change)
Current 5-day percentage change of currencies against other major currencies since the daily close 23:59:59 server time, 5 days ago.
The JPY is weaker across the board as the Japan CPI rose 0.2% y/y in July slowing from 0.4% in June. The AUD traded generally stronger as construction work done in Australia climbed 1.6% q/q for Q2 2015. The CAD is firmer after the CAD PPI in July inched up 0.1% y/y, after it had fallen 0.9% in June.
Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:
Main Macro Events Today
• EUR Consumer Price Index: EMU August CPI is expected to fall to 0.1% (median same) from 0.2%, this is mainly the result of lower oil prices. Sharply lower oil prices mean the inflation trajectory will likely look flatter than previously and at the same time the risks to growth have increased. Still, core inflation is actually trending higher, money supply growth is accelerating and loan growth stabilising. In this situation, the ECB will use low inflation to give markets some dovish sound-bites at Thursday’s central bank meeting and stress that the door to further measures remains open, without committing to further easing.
• USD Chicago Purchasing Manager’s Index: The Chicago PMI continues the August producer sentiment releases later today and should reveal a headline improvement to 55.0 (median 54.9) from 54.7. Producer sentiment measures have been mixed so far in August and we expect the month’s ISM-adjusted average to decline to 52 after holding at 53 in both June and July.
