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Important CAD Pairs: Technical Check


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Although USDCAD Bulls failed to propel the quote beyond short-term ascending trend-channel resistance, also including 50% Fibonacci Retracement of its year-long downturn since November 2015, the pair recently bounced-off from 1.3425 support and is again rising towards 1.3500 round figure. Should it manage to surpass 1.3500, 50% Fibo level of 1.3575 and previously mentioned channel resistance, at 1.3620 now, may entertain short-term buyers before the upper-line of broader channel, around 1.3670, could limit the pair's further north-run. In case of a successful break above 1.3670, the 1.3700 and the 61.8% Fibo level of 1.3835 may soon become reality for traders. However, expected strength of the Crude prices might drag the prices towards immediate channel support of 1.3330 if it breaks the 1.3425 nearby rest-point. If it drops below 1.3330, 50-day SMA level of 1.3235 and the 1.3145 are likely following downside figures to appear on the chart. Moreover, pair's additional weakness below 1.3145, may find 200-day SMA level of 1.3095 and the medium-term channel support-mark of 1.3000 as important halts, which if ignored can make prices vulnerable to plunge towards 1.2830-25 area.


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Following its strong surge after clearing 79.60-65 resistance, the CADJPY now confronts 200-day SMA level around 81.30 but the overbought RSI level signal brighter chances of its pullback to 80.30 adjacent support. Given the pair declines below 80.30, the 79.65-60 again comes into play, breaking which 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of its November 2015-2016 drop, at 79.10, and the 100-day SMA level of 78.50 could please the Bears. Alternatively, pair's closing above 81.30 could give rise to its extended advances towards 38.2% Fibo level of 81.80 and the 82.60 upside figures while a longer-term descending trend-line level of 83.30 may curb its strength. If at all the pair closes beyond 83.30, the 50% Fibo level of 84.00 may act as a buffer prior to printing 84.50-55 resistance.


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With the recent strength of CAD dragging AUDCAD below six month old ascending trend-channel, 50-day SMA, around 1.0080, seems holding the gate for the pair's additional downside. Should the pair closes below 1.0080, 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level of May – November up-move, at 0.9985, quickly followed by 100-day SMA level of 0.9970, may soon appear on the chart. Moreover, pair's sustained downtrend below 0.9970 can give rise to expectations of witnessing 0.9875 and the 0.9785-90. Meanwhile, pair's bounce from 1.0080 need to clear 1.0115 in order to validate 1.0180 and the 1.0220 resistances. Should prices manage to break 1.0220, it can again challenge 1.0270 and the 1.0340 ahead of targeting 1.0400 mark.


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Having failed to surpass 0.9930, the NZDCAD seems presently declining towards 100-day SMA level of 0.9465, near to 0.9425-30 support-zone, comprising six-month old ascending trend-line and 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of April – November upside. Given the pair declines below 0.9425 on a daily closing basis, the 0.9380 and the 0.9300 round figure can entertain subsequent sellers before the 50% Fibo level of 0.9265 can restrict its further south-run. On the upside, 0.9570 and the 23.6% Fibo level of 0.9615 are expected nearby resistances for the pair traders to observe, breaking which 0.9665 and the 0.9735 become important. If pair Bulls fuel the quote beyond 0.9735, chances of its rally to 0.9830 and then to the 0.9930 can't be denied.

Cheers and Safe Trading,

Anil Panchal


Thursday, 17 Nov, 2016 / 2:14

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