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ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 May 15
Personal opinions today
US President Donald Trump said he would meet Chinese leaders at the G20 summit in late June. China willingness to trade talks again and the market sentiment improved slightly. US Dow Jones industrial average recovering more than 200 points to close, recovering some recent losses. Gold prices and the JPY fell somewhat, the Euro also slightly adjustment. US API crude oil inventories rose sharply, limiting the rise of crude oil prices.
Watch out today for Germany first-quarter GDP and the Eurozone first quarter GDP. Markets are watching Germany first-quarter GDP growth rate and looking ahead to the Eurozone first-quarter GDP growth rate. U.S. retail sales rate for April and U.S. industrial output for April also Important today. With Canada dollar traders, watching the Canada CPI p for April, which reflects Canada inflation, have the opportunity to influence the volatility of the Canadian dollar.
No matter how the economic data plays out, the market sentiment most concerned about the development of trade talks between the United States and China. Positive or negative comments, respectively, affect the global stock market, commodity and currency markets, more likely to direct the trend of the dollar.
[Important financial data and events to watch]
14:00 German first-quarter GDP
16:00 the IEA releases its monthly oil market report
17:00 Eurozone quarterly employment rate
17:00 Eurozone first quarter GDP revised
20:30 U.S. retail sales for April
20:30 Canadian CPI monthly rate for April
22:00 U.S. March business inventory monthly rate
22:30 U.S. EIA crude oil inventories for the week
Markets watching Eurozone economic data today, includes Germany and the Eurozone GDP, will affect the trend of the Euro. The Euro was indirectly affected by U.S. retail sales in April and industrial output in April. Technically, Euro reference resistance at 1.1240 and its reference support at 1.1195. If European economic data satisfy markets and tensions between China and the United States, money could flow into the European currencies, the euro, and the Swiss franc upward.
Political parties in the UK are debating a deal to leave the European Union. However, the Brexit agreement is still under discussion, and there is no implementation, which continues to affect investor confidence in the U.K., and the GBPUSD fell. Expect the Euro to rise and the GBP to rise indirectly. Technically, if under the resistance 1.3040, the downtrend continuously. Now may test lower support at 1.2895 and 1.2880.
A trade war was affecting the Australian dollar. The Australian dollar is likely to continue to fall as trade tensions between the U.S. and China. The trend of the New Zealand dollar also follows the Australian dollar. At present, the AUDUSD is focused on 0.6910 support and the NZDUSD is focused on 0.6545 support. If trade relations improve and the US and China start trade talks again, AUDUSD and NZDUSD could reverse the trend.
Japan Nikkei index fell after trade talks between China and the United States collapsed, escalating trade war and undermining prospects for economic recovery. Money flowed back into the JPY, reducing the carry trade. The dollar has tracked the Nikkei performance against the yen and will struggle to rebound sharply without any news to improve market sentiment and lift stocks. The market expects the trade war between China and the United States to grow and expects the USDJPY to be supported at 109.35 or 109.15 in the short term.
A trade war between the U.S. and China escalated, as crude oil inventories rose and crude oil futures fell, hurting the Canadian dollar. Technically, the USDCAD to continue to fluctuate around 1.3475. If the current trade talks and trade war do not improve, the expected decline in crude oil demand, crude oil prices fell, continue to be harmful to the Canadian dollar.
U.S. crude futures USOIL
Despite the tensions in the Middle East, it supports crude oil prices. Now trade talks between China and the United States are expected to resume, which could support crude oil prices. If the date is confirmed, it could boost crude prices. Technically, the critical support is $60.85, and a breakout test could be below $60.05. On the contrary, the price of crude oil broke through 62.05, the first resistance target at 62.85.
Tensions between China and the United States, an escalating trade war and turmoil in global stock markets have prompted safe-haven flows into gold. Now relations between the two countries are expected to ease, and gold prices have stalled. Must pay attention to US and China trade talks news or US Dow performance. Positive news or stock market rise, gold prices are expected to try low.
U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
The investment climate turned sour when the US President imposed additional tariffs on Chinese imports, but the latest news is that US and China relations are expected to ease and the Dow Jones industrial average is on the rise. On the contrary, the situation is not clear; the stock market fell.
8150 / 8550 resistance
7750 / 7600 support
China and U.S. tension, global stock markets fell; Dow overall decline, the bitcoin demand increasing. Technically the bitcoin price broke $7500, forecast to $8000. Now, keeps watching the China and U.S. trade tension. If a positive outlook, bearish the price of Bitcoin. If contrary, the Bitcoin will continue the uptrend.
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Information provided by ATFX, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial
Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
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